Austin, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

055
FXUS65 KGJT 172335
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
535 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant and dry conditions return Thursday with temperatures
  near normal and mostly sunny skies.
- Non zero chances for some showers return Friday for our
  southern mountains, spreading northward over the mountains
  this weekend.
- A warmer, drier trend materializes next week with
  temperatures potentially returning to more summer-like values.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A ridge of high pressure is beginning to exert its influence
across the region this afternoon. A couple pulses of short wave
energy on the back side of the departing low are producing some
clouds north of I-70 and down the Divide southward of there.
Some isolated showers and a thunderstorm are possible in this
regime this afternoon. The mid day sounding at Grand Junction
has a capped atmosphere with little moisture to work with, low
lapse rates, and not much for wind in the mixed layer. Not
expecting much in the way of activity from showers this
afternoon and early evening. This wave will depart late this
evening and models keep some isolated showers and cloud cover
against the Divide overnight, but little in the way of wetting
rain can be expected. Overnight lows drop into the normal range
again, offering a glimpse at the cool fall mornings ahead of us.
Another pleasant day is in store Thursday as the ridge
amplifies overhead. Temperatures in the low valleys along the
state line will hang around 80 degrees. Up north in the
influence of the cooler air behind the departing wave,
temperatures barely get into the 70s in the Uinta Basin.
Subsidence beneath the high should keep any hope of showers
tamped down Thursday. A welcome respite from the active weather
of the past week.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The ridge of high pressure begins to break down on Friday and
is replaced by a more zonal flow pattern with numerous embedded
subtle waves. A jet begins to funnel moisture towards the
intermountain west from the SoCal coast. This will lead to an
uptick in terrain-based thunderstorms each afternoon this
weekend. Depending on the timing of the synoptic forcing from
the shortwaves, nocturnal convection may be possible as well.
Temperatures will be rather seasonable through the weekend with
a mix of sun and cloud overhead.
High pressure builds in for the start of the new week.
Temperatures will rise to around 10 degrees above normal by
midweek with drier air returning in the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe. The timing and evolution of the ridge varies greatly
between global ensembles so we will have to wait for better
model agreement before we pin down the arrival of drier air
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A cluster of showers continues to drift ESE through northwest
CO this evening. Impacts are expected to remain limited, though
very isolated lightning will remain possible at KHDN, KRIL,
KEGE, and KASE as the showers move through during the next 1-2
hours. Confidence is too low to include for any specific site.
Mid to high level clouds will also clear from west to east
tonight, resulting in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through the rest of the period.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion