Hartland, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

085
FXUS63 KDTX 171914
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very warm temperatures again on Thursday.
- A little cooler Friday into Saturday. Warmer with increasing rain
chances by the end of the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Mid level riding and sfc high pressure overhead will support light
and variable winds and optimal radiational cooling tonight, allowing
nighttime mins to drop down into the 50s. Fog potential tonight will
be through radiational processes and most favorable in low lying
areas. Mid level short wave energy will cause some suppression of
the mid level ridge axis across the northern Great Lakes tonight and
will drive a weak cold front south into central Lower Mi by late
Thursday afternoon. An axis of low level moisture is forecast to
advect into the frontal boundary and result in weak instability as
the front advances into Central Lower Mi. Hi res model guidance
suggests enhanced low level frontal convergence aided by flow off
Saginaw Bay will result in scattered late day convection across the
Tri Cities, Mt Pleasant and Clare. A few solutions actually suggest
some residual convection pushing southward toward Flint and Lansing
by evening with some erosion of the mid level cap. Otherwise
prefrontal warmth and respectable mixing heights will result in
another very warm day with highs possibly well into the 80s. The
exception will be across the northern thumb as post frontal north
winds off Lake Huron will develop in the afternoon.
Mid level ridging is forecast re expand across Lower Mi Thurs night
into Friday. The strength of the northeasterly gradient across Lake
Huron will hold the lower tropospheric front over Lower Mi despite
the increasing mid level height field. This will result in a
respectable thermal gradient across southern Michigan. Locations
around Kalamazoo and Battle Creek are likely to remain in the warm
sector, resulting in highs in the low 80s again while temps from
central Michigan across the thumb region may be stuck in the 60s. The
depth of moisture trapped under a deep frontal inversion will result
in more cloud cover across much of the area. Model soundings have
some indications of a drizzle potential Thurs night into Friday from
Central Michigan/Tri Cities across the thumb.
The blocking pattern which has held strong mid level ridging
overhead for the last week will gradually break down this weekend as
the mid level flow becomes more progressive. The upper low now over
the northern plains will lift across the northern Great Lakes this
weekend, driving mid level high falls across Lower Mi. Southerly
flow will also advect a little deeper moisture into the Great Lakes
toward Sunday, warranting a the next chance for rain. Residual low
level dry air associated with departing high pressure to the east
support a continued dry forecast through at least the afternoon
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and waves prevail across the central Great Lakes this
afternoon and evening as high pressure continues to dominate the
region. A cold front then drops southward across Lake Huron, passing
the Straits around midnight before reaching the southern basin by
early Thursday afternoon. The front will be marked by an increase in
north to northwest wind to around 10 to 15 kt. Funneling effects on
Saginaw Bay will result in a localized northeast wind direction and
locally higher gusts of around 20 kt. Strong high pressure then
builds in across northern Ontario which produces northeast flow
across the region Friday with sustained speed of 15 to 20 kt and
gusts near 25 kt across Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron. Wind
veers to east and southeast by Saturday, with the higher magnitude
of wind shifting toward the northern Lake Huron basin.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
AVIATION...
Clear skies are observed across much of lower MI this afternoon,
with the diurnal cu field tied closely to marine layer moisture.
High pressure ensures a generally quiet TAF period with light and
variable winds expected for the rest of today and tonight. Will be
monitoring for BR/FG potential again Thursday morning given clear
skies and calm winds overnight. The lack of fog reports this morning
and shift to offshore flow, however, does lower the confidence in
both development and coverage compared to earlier this week, so did
not include with this TAF issuance. By mid-day Thursday, a cold
front reaches the northern portions of the airspace with the bulk of
rain chances occurring after 18z Thursday.
For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the TAF
period.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....MV
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion