Absarokee, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS65 KBYZ 060815
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
215 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend through the weekend leading to above average
  temperatures to start the work week.
- Chance for precipitation in south-central Montana Sunday
  afternoon and evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Sunday Night...
Another chilly start to the day in eastern Montana with a cold air
mass still in place under a cyclonic flow aloft. Some locations
in the eastern valleys may see frost early this morning (Baker
chance of frost 75%). Otherwise...look for mostly sunny skies and
a warm up as a ridge of high pressure aloft gradually builds over
the region from the west this weekend. Highs today will range from
lower 80s west to upper 60s east. Lows tonight will be in the 40s
for most locations.
As the ridge axis moves right over Montana Sunday it will allow an
increase in overall moisture into our southwest zones in the
backing mid level flow. PWATS will begin to climb in our western
area reaching 150% of normal. This sets the stage for a shortwave
that is progged to move through the ridge across our area Sunday
afternoon and evening. The best chance of measurable precipitation
is over the Beartooth/Absaroka ranges and nearby foothills
(40-65%) Sunday afternoon and evening. MUCAPE values are progged
to be 200-450 J/kg, so thunderstorms with brief heavy rain are
possible over the mountains along with showers. Locations further
east of the foothills only have a slight chance of measurable
rainfall during this time as short wave forcing weakens as it
tracks east through the ridge and MUCAPE drops off with westerly
downslope flow. We have slight chance PoPs generally as far east
as Yellowstone County before they drop to under 10%. Temps on
Sunday will get boosted to the 80s.
Wildfire smoke is expected to increase across the area by Sunday,
though near surface smoke should not be as bad as last week. BT
Monday through Friday...
After the disturbance moves through Sunday, Monday looks to
remain dry under the upper level ridge. Then, conditions become
unsettled as a broad trough off of the west coast moves inland and
upper level flow becomes more southwesterly.
The chance for precipitation will gradually increase through the
work week, beginning with a 20-50% chance Tuesday afternoon
(highest over the mountains) for locations west of Billings. By
Friday, there is a 50-70% chance over the mountains and a 30-50%
chance over the rest of the region. Currently, there is a signal
for late season strong thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday over
the east, so this will be something to keep an eye on.
High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will range from upper 70s over the
west to low to mid 80s over the rest of the region. Temperatures
will gradually cool into the end of the week, with highs in the
low to mid 70s by Friday. Archer
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of smoke will move in over the west, including KLVM, today
and will reduce slant range visibility at times. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail with mostly light winds. Archer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 049/087 059/087 056/084 056/083 057/078 054/075
    0/U 02/W    21/U    01/B    21/B    34/T    45/W
LVM 083 048/084 049/083 048/079 046/078 046/074 043/072
    0/K 03/T    21/U    03/T    33/T    45/T    55/T
HDN 081 044/087 054/087 051/087 053/085 054/080 052/075
    0/U 00/B    10/U    01/B    21/B    33/T    55/W
MLS 074 043/085 055/088 054/087 059/086 059/082 056/077
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    44/W
4BQ 072 045/084 057/085 053/086 059/085 059/081 056/073
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/W    44/W
BHK 070 040/081 050/085 050/084 053/082 055/078 052/074
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    21/N    22/T    43/T
SHR 078 044/084 052/084 050/084 051/083 051/078 048/072
    0/U 00/B    11/U    01/B    21/B    23/W    45/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion