Acequia, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

792
FXUS65 KPIH 051745
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1145 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures continue to cool down each day
- Isolated dry thunderstorms expected today
- Coverage for showers and thunderstorms still increases over
  the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
High pressure will continue to weaken over the area and monsoon
moisture move into the area from our south and west today.
Drier air will drop over the Montana divide and keep our
northeast areas mostly dry today. Today there will still be a
chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the
Central mountains and along the Utah border. Very little, if
any, precipitation is expected. Outflows of up to around 30 to
35 mph are possible with any storms. Saturday expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Best
precipitation chances will be in the Central mountains and
mountains along the Utah border. Most precipitation will be
below 0.10 inch but under a few storms could get around 0.25
inch.
Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s across the area, near
normal for this time of year. High temperatures today will be a
few degrees less than yesterday. Saturday temperatures will drop
a few degrees over today.
There is still some lingering valley smoke/haze (AQI in
the low 50s) across southeast Idaho with light smoke moving into
the area over the Montana Divide with high pressure continuing
to break down. Expect air quality to improve this weekend with
the return of precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Models remain consistent in bringing a solid push of moisture across
East Idaho for the weekend as a pair of shortwaves push the ridge
axis to the east. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected both Saturday and Sunday, along with a decrease in
daytime high temperatures. As far as QPF goes, NBM probabilistic data
keeps the better chances for wetting rains for Sunday afternoon and
evening. For Saturday there is roughly a 10-20% chance of at least a
0.10 across the central mountains and southern highlands. Sunday
that spreads across more of the region, but probabilities reach
their highest at 35-45% across the northern regions near the Divide.
Despite the southwest flow continuing, there looks to be a little
bit of a break in the moisture for early next week, with shower and
thunderstorm chances decreasing to isolated for higher elevations
Monday. Deeper moisture returns as early as Tuesday, with scattered
thunderstorms each day through the remainder of the forecast.
Temperatures drop to the 70s with this second increase in
moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR generally expected to prevail through the period. There are
some potential wrinkles to this however, namely smoke and haze
from regional wildfires. Satellite imagery is showing widespread
impacts across the region and surface observations are showing
reduced visibilities but thus far, they have stayed in the 5-8
SM range. That being said, introduced HZ to eastern Idaho
terminals but kept VSBYs at 6SM. We`ll have to see if this
holds. Still a very isolated shower chance today at KSUN but
hi-res models are showing this potential as quite low. Greater
probabilities exists there, and elsewhere, tomorrow afternoon
and evening throughout eastern Idaho. Have already shown
VCSH/VCTS at KSUN and KBYI for late morning Saturday. Expect
that to potentially be added to the other 3 eastern Idaho
terminals on the next forecast for KPIH, KIDA and KDIJ just
beyond 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease slightly today over
yesterday. However, today there is still a chance of afternoon
isolated, mostly dry, showers and thunderstorms in the Central
mountains, zone 422, and along the Utah border, zone 427 and
zone 413. Look for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with a mix of wet and dry
storms. The greatest chances of wetting rains will be Sunday
afternoon/evening close to the Montana border. There is a break
in the pattern early next week, followed by a return of an
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms with an upper
level low likely moving over the area Tuesday through Thursday.
Daytime high temperatures will slowly decrease each day with
daytime high temperatures cooling into the 60s and 70s by
midweek next week. Today and Monday look like the lowest minimum
RHs, with minimum RHs of 20 to 25% expected. Otherwise, minimum
RHs will be higher, more 30 to 40%. &&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...TW

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion