Ackerly, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

293
FXUS64 KMAF 111825
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
125 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- This weekend will feature near normal temperatures and low to
  moderate (20-60%) rain chances. Best (40-60%) rain chances will
  be over southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in West
  Texas Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Near normal temperatures remain through the middle of next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VIS/IR satellite again shows little in the way of cloud cover early
this afternoon, apart from scattered cumulus across southern parts
of the forecast area. Mid to upper ridging across the central CONUS
allowing for continued large scale sinking motion over the area, as
well as high pressure at the surface across west and central TX will
keep rain chances near zero. Mostly sunny skies expected until this
evening when core of sinking air associated with surface high
pressure develops farther to the east, and high cloud cover
increases. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, lower to mid
90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher elevations, mid to upper 90s F
along Presidio Valley and over Upper Trans Pecos, and 100 F +
readings for the Big Bend. Gusty southeast winds developing this
afternoon and continuing overnight keep lows similar to yesterday as
well, mid to upper 60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher elevations and
northern Lea County, and lower to mid 70s F along Rio Grande.
Friday, cloudier skies limiting daytime heating result in widespread
highs in the mid 80s F to lower 90s F, with mid to upper 90s F
remaining across Upper Trans Pecos and Presidio Valley, as well as
100 F + readings for the Big Bend. Gusty southeast winds across the
area are again forecast to develop in the afternoon and continue
through evening, resulting in lows a few degrees warmer than
previous nights, in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F, and upper 50s F
to mid 60s F usual cooler spots. As high pressure at the surface
continues to develop to the east allowing lee troughing over SE NM
and a quasi-stationary front across the High Plains into Central
Rockies to move southward, low to moderate (15% to 30%) rain chances
develop by early Saturday morning across SE NM plains into
Guadalupes. Increased rain chances, along with slightly cooler and
more humid weather, are anticipated into next week. More on this in
the long term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The upper-level ridge responsible for our above normal temperatures
translates eastward this weekend. In its place, an upper trough
gradually slides from the western CONUS toward the Great Plains,
bringing cooler temperatures and increased rain chances by Saturday.
Our region looks to lie under the southern edge of this upper trough
before it lifts northeast early next week. In general, the trough
allows afternoon highs to warm near normal, ranging from the mid 80s
to low 90s through the extended forecast, with morning lows mainly
in the 60s. As mentioned above, the approaching trough brings an
uptick in rain chances across portions of our region Saturday into
Sunday. A few showers may develop over southeast New Mexico as early
as Saturday morning. Rain chances continue to spread eastward
through the day Saturday, ranging between 20-60% across the region
by the afternoon. The best (40-60%) odds will be over southeast New
Mexico late Saturday afternoon and into the evening, as this area
will be closer to better lift associated with a surface trough.
Sunday, rain chances begin to taper down, becoming 10-40% across the
area, with the best chances in and near the Davis Mountains during
the afternoon. A few showers/storms may develop over the higher
terrain Monday as the trough begins to depart, though most look to
remain dry. Rain chances throughout the rest of the period remain
low (10-20%) each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions and no rain expected throughout TAF period.
Southeast winds at terminals up to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
for terminals across Stockton Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos into
SE NM plains forecast 19Z-23Z today into 04Z-06Z Friday, then
continuing gusty southeast winds into 07Z-10Z Friday for
terminals across Stockton Plateau, Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM
plains. Southeast winds again become gusty at or above 15-20 knots
14Z-16Z into end of period for terminals across Stockton Plateau
into Permian Basin and Lea County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 64  91  68  87 /   0   0  10  60
Dryden                   68  91  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            66  90  68  89 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           62  83  63  79 /   0  10  10  50
Hobbs                    62  88  65  85 /   0   0   0  40
Marfa                    56  85  59  82 /   0   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     66  92  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   66  90  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     65  91  68  88 /   0   0   0  30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion