Adrian, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

617
FXUS64 KAMA 231139
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Low clouds are developing across the northern and central
Panhandles at this time. Fog is not expected this morning as winds
are out of the north and there is a large enough dew point
depression to prevent fog. The cold front is south of the
Panhandles at this time and cooler air will settle in today with
highs 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Went ahead and blended
in some cooler guidance to the forecast highs for today, which
resulted in only minor decreases across the area. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Chances of showers and thunderstorms to follow today into early
Wednesday.
Drier weather looks to close the work week out with a low chances
of more storms to follow Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As of late tonight, latest radar was seeing present storms
struggle under the cap with most of these storms currently
elevated and producing occasional 60 mph wind gusts. These storms
are quickly being push out of the Panhandles into Central Oklahoma
and Southern Kansas with not much redevelopment following behind
it. Meanwhile latest satellite and observations have seen the
front stall well to our north, with most CAMs not having it here
until the overnight cap is well established. At this time chances
of any severe thunderstorms have decreased quite a bit, though not
fully ruled out if we can get an isolated storm to break the cap.
However, once the front has fully passed the atmosphere is
expected to become very stable under the cooler air mass behind
it. Still the potential is present to see more showers and
embedded thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as models see the upper-
level trough axis finally pushes into the Panhandles and give us
enough lift. These chances will likely persists through the
evening and overnight hours with activity finally waning as the
trough exits Wednesday. Otherwise look for a nice cool down to
follow this frontal passage with afternoon temperatures dropping
into 70s for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Moving into Thursday has most models agreeing to the upper-level
ridge rebuilding and moving over the Panhandles. This placement
will look to see the Panhandles dry out through Friday and
portions of Saturday. From there model agreement does see a new
upper-level closed low try to move across the Southwestern United
State during the weekend, but there is still a lot of disagreement
on its placement and timing. At this time most ensembles are
preferring a dry approach with chances of precipitation 15% or
less through the weekend. Model agreement only gets worse as we
head into the new week, with both the ECMWF and GFS not sure how
to progress the upper-level closed low pasted the Great Plains.
For now, look temperatures to rebound after the cool down with
most locations back into the 80s by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
MVFR ceilings are forecast for a few hours this morning with
impacts mainly at KAMA and KGUY. After the low clouds clear out,
VFR conditions are expected through the rest of this TAF cycle.
Showers and storms are possible at all sites after 00z, but
confidence is slightly higher in potential impacts at KGUY and
KDHT, so have added PROB30 mentions of thunder to the TAFs. Low
clouds may develop once again at the very end of this 24 hour
period and could lead to MVFR ceilings. Winds will be out of the
north with gusts upwards of 20-30 kts.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion