Adrian, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

397
FXUS61 KRLX 140542
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Redundant dry and unseasonably warm pattern continues until at
least mid week. Chances for precipitation return for some late
Tuesday. Elevated risk for wildfire start continues.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...
Seeing some high-level cloud cover moving over the forecast area
with a disturbance posturing to our west. This front will
slowly migrate towards the area later this morning into the
afternoon. Radar shows some slight returns appearing over the
area with some moisture aloft. A spot of drizzle or two is
possible, but surface high pressure and drier air remains too
stubborn to allow the majority of it to reach the surface and
will evaporate. That said, fog formation will be tentative with
the cloud cover and light winds. Spots across the northeastern
mountains with no dew point depression have higher chances for
seeing fog form. If skies clear out later this morning then more
fog development will be on the table.
Otherwise, the forecast for today remains unchanged. Skies will
be mostly clear, but fleeting mid to high level clouds are
possible during the day with the front nearby. High temperatures
will be very warm to hot with the lowlands reaching the upper
80s, with some locations flirting with 90 degrees. The mountains
will stay in the 70s to the lower 80s. These temperatures are
unseasonably warm for this time of the year.
Partial fire weather risks linger with relative humidity
percentages dropping into the upper 20s and 30s once again this
afternoon. Winds will be light enough to allow for decrease in
spread should one spawn and thus mitigates the need for
headlines. RH values will recover tonight with lows dropping
into the 50s and lower 60s. More abundant fog development will
be more possible tonight into Monday morning with clearer skies
in the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Saturday ...
An upper level ridge will build over the region for the remainder of
the weekend into early next week. This will continue the stretch of
dry weather with mostly clear skies and unseasonably warm
temperatures. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be about 10
degrees above normal for mid-September, reaching the upper 80s,
with some locations in the Metro Valley possibly touching 90
degrees.
The elevated risk for wildfire starts will continue each afternoon,
as minimum humidity percentages drop into the upper 20s to lower
30s. Light winds should again limit the risk for fire spread.
Overnight lows will be mild, dropping into the upper 50s and
lower 60s, with areas of valley fog redeveloping each night. By
Tuesday, the ridge begins to flatten, marking the start of a
pattern change.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
The upper ridge that brings the warm and dry conditions early in the
week will begin to deamplify and shift eastward by midweek. At the
same time, troughing is forecast to develop along the southeast
coast. This will promote a more onshore flow, gradually
increasing moisture across the forecast area, especially along
the higher terrain. This may bring a return of precipitation
chances, initially confined to the higher terrain of the
mountains on Wednesday.
There is still some uncertainty in model guidance regarding the
evolution of this area of low pressure, which will impact how
much moisture ultimately makes it into the lower elevations and
resultant precipitation chances. For now will defer to drier
central guidance solution, but there is some hope in at least
some model families for some modest relief from the dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 AM Sunday...
VFR conditions remain in place for now. Fog development is
possible, but confidence is not high on exactly where. EKN has
the greatest chance for fog this morning given their current
lack of dew point depression. If skies clear out then more fog
development will occur. A shortwave disturbance to our west
will eventually approach our area this morning. As a result,
high-level cloud cover will be moving through at times this
morning, which will likely disrupt fog formation for some areas.
Isolated spots of drizzle are possible.
VFR is expected tomorrow with some mid-level cloud cover at
at times with the front nearby. Winds will be light and variable
through the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Except for KEKN, fog formation is not
certain this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                        SUN 09/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in valley fog each morning through
at least early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will lead to an elevated risk
for fire ignition into early next week. Minimum relative
humidity values across the lowlands will generally be in the
upper 20s to lower 30s, but overnight recoveries should remain
good. Winds will remain light, generally below 10 mph, which
will limit the threat of fire spread.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC
FIRE WEATHER...JP

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion