Aguilares, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

770
FXUS64 KCRP 242332
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Muggy and warm conditions today with heat indices ranging from
   105 - 115F.
- Marginal Risk for Severe Weather (Level 1 of 5, primarily gusty
   winds) and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (Level 2 of 4)
   today.
- Additional round of rainfall early Thursday morning which will
   spread area-wide by mid-morning.
- 1-2" rainfall amounts through Thursday night as the most
  reasonable range, with high end amounts nearing 4".
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Currently the H5 level features a low over the Great Lakes region
with troughing extending down to over Texas. This is expected to
extend into South Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front with mainly a drier
air mass behind is currently pushing southward across Central
Texas and is expected to stall somewhere across our CWA overnight
tonight. Surface lift provided by the front combined with mid- to
upper level support could help promote strong to some severe
thunderstorms with forecasted Eff Bulk Shear >=35 kts across the
region. Thus the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included all of
South Texas in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 1
out of 5) through 12Z Thursday. As the front comes through it will
be accompanied by moisture advection and PWATs are progged to
increase to over 2.0 inches which is the 75th percentile for this
time of year. This is expected to result in periods of heavy
rainfall which could lead to scattered flash flooding. As such,
WPC has put the region under a Slight risk for Excessive Rainfall
(level 2 of 4) through 12Z Friday. The initial round of activity
will come along and ahead of the front itself with activity
starting this afternoon followed by continued activity becoming
more widespread in coverage overnight. Then tapers off tomorrow
as activity pushes offshore. Rainfall totals for this event are
still expected to generally range from 1-2 inches with localized
amounts up to 4 inches possible.
Highs today in the low 90s to around 100 degrees will cool slightly
behind the front to around the mid 80s to low 90s tomorrow through
the early part of next week. Lows tonight around 70-80 will become
65-75 Thursday night through the middle of next week. The heat index
today is 105-115 degrees across the region accompanied by a Moderate
to Major heat risk. Then after the front, the heat risk becomes
minor.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Showers and storms have developed across South Texas this
afternoon, with the strongest storms concentrated near the
Victoria Crossroads. Outside of storms, conditions will
predominately be VFR. In the vicinity of a storm, outflow
boundaries may lead to brief gusty and erratic winds. The
probability of a 35 kt gust or higher through tonight remains low
(

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion