Alma, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

908
FXUS64 KTSA 211738
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will spread across
eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will increase during
the afternoon and into the evening as the precipitation moves into
western Arkansas. The stronger storms will pose a local flash flood
concern in some areas, along with strong gusty winds.
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday or
Thursday. There is a moderate chance of a more robust storm complex
crossing the area from Monday night into Tuesday. A wider swath
heavy rainfall could occur in the region on Tuesday.
- Warm conditions continue through Monday, with temperatures then
moderating into late week, falling slightly below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Diffluent flow aloft at the base of an upper level trough, and to
the north of an anticyclonically curving jet segment, will continue
to support upward motion over the area into tonight. Additionally, a
small-scale vort max is tracking across northeast Oklahoma with a
lobe of vorticity extending south into the Red River Valley. Patches
of rain area occurring with the system in our area now, with
scattered thunderstorms likely to develop ahead of it later today
and tonight as the system tracks into Arkansas. Locally heavy rain
and gusty winds will occur with stronger storms, with local flash
flood potential in the track of the stronger cells.
There is some concern that a storm induced boundary will be in place
this evening in southeast Oklahoma or northeast Texas that could be
a potential focus for a small zone of very heavy rain tonight as a
30 knot low-level jet from the southwest develops. This potential
would be disrupted if too many new storms develop and track further
south in Texas. The ceiling for rainfall is rather high in this
scenario. So while the current probability is low for this to unfold
as worst-case situation, the potential will need to be monitored
into tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Rising heights aloft and the associated shift of the upper-level jet
segment to the north will tend to reduce precipitation coverage with
time on Monday, a fairly strong upper-level system will approach the
area from the northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.  With that will
come the possibility for one or two storm complexes that should be a
more robust than the recent systems. If this setup evolves as
current data suggests, a more widespread swath of 3 to 5 inches of
rain could occur from Monday night into Tuesday night, with local
multi-day totals approaching 7 inches. These amounts would drive a
threat for more than local flash flooding and some river flooding.
Current data favor northwest Arkansas and adjacent portions of far
eastern Oklahoma for the heaviest rain potential.  But this could
easily shift a number of counties in any direction at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the
forecast, outside of storm activity. A convective wave will bring
periodic storm chances to the TAF sites this afternoon and
tonight. For the most part, prob30s were used to cover the more
favored time windows. Most guidance has no low cloud cover
tonight, but some data suggests there could be sub-VFR cigs.
Decided not to include any prevailing low cloud cigs in the TAFs
for now, but did include potential for MVFR cigs in W AR TAFs in
the prob30 groups.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  86  71  82 /  50  30  60  80
FSM   70  86  72  84 /  50  60  50  70
MLC   69  88  72  87 /  50  60  40  70
BVO   64  84  66  80 /  50  20  70  80
FYV   64  82  66  80 /  40  50  70  90
BYV   65  80  66  76 /  60  70  70  90
MKO   67  86  69  82 /  50  40  60  80
MIO   65  81  66  78 /  70  40  70  80
F10   66  87  69  84 /  60  50  50  80
HHW   69  89  72  90 /  30  40  20  50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion