Altoona Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

824
FXUS64 KBMX 071726
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A longwave trough extends from over Hudson Bay in Canada
southwest to over the Northern Plains and Midwest while broad
ridging persists over much of the Southern Plains eastward across
much of the Southeast. Strong surface high pressure was positioned
offshore of the Eastern Seaboard while a surface cold front
extended from Southeast Michigan southwest to across the Midwest
and into the Central Plains with another front analyzed
immediately to the southeast across the Mid-South Region
stretching southwest into Northwest Louisiana and South-Central
Texas. Mostly cloudy skies covered much of the forecast area early
this morning with some decrease in cloud cover expected towards
midday while isolated shower activity was detected by radar
generally across the northwest portion of the area.
Today.
Expect skies to become partly cloudy across all but the northwest
counties by this afternoon as more clouds will persist further
northwest. Scattered (45-55%) shower activity is forecast across
the northwest fifth of the area with isolated (20-45%) chances
generally along and northwest of a line from Montgomery to
Alexander City to Roanoke with lower chances southeast. Along with
the shower chances will exist potential for a few (10-30%)
afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the low to
mid 80s with highest values south and southwest. Winds will be
from the south to southeast at 4-8 mph.
Tonight.
Mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight with isolated (20-45%)
chances for showers and a few (10-20%) thunderstorms generally
near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 60s northwest to around 70
southeast. Winds will shift out of the southwest overnight with
light speeds from 2-4 mph.
Wednesday.
Longwave troughing aloft will extend more meridionally from over
Southeast Canada southward to over the Eastern Ohio River Valley
Region. The surface cold front will advance into the area from the
northwest, becoming positioned roughly along the Interstate 20
corridor by late afternoon as strong surface high pressure builds
over much of the Great Lakes region.
Expect mostly cloudy skies across much of the area at least
through early afternoon before some decreasing clouds begins
across the west and northwest. Isolated (15-30%) chances for
showers with a few (10-20%) thunderstorms will exist generally
from near Selma northeast to near Anniston and points
east/southeast. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s
far northwest to the upper 80s far south-central. Winds will
become northerly through the day with speeds from 6-12 mph.
05
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
Wednesday night through Thursday night.
The upper levels are expected to amplify through this time frame
with the forecast area becoming positioned between longwave
ridging over much of the Plains while deep troughing persists over
much of the Eastern Seaboard and Northeast. Most global and
regional models develop a mid-level impulse late Wednesday over
Missouri and advect it southeastward to over the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley Regions later in the day on Thursday. This mid-
level disturbance is progged to move southeast over the eastern
portion of the forecast area into Thursday night.
Partly cloudy skies are forecast Wednesday night as lingering
showers dissipate far east and southeast after sunset. Cooler
temperatures behind the front with lows from the lower 50s far
northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Winds will remain from the
north at 4-8 mph.
Expect partly cloudy skies Thursday with more clouds to the north
and east. There will be isolated (10-20%) chances for showers
forecast for areas generally along and east of the Interstate 59
corridor with a few (10-20%) thunderstorms possible across the
southeast portion of the area. Depending on the strength and
position of the aforementioned disturbance, these chances may
increase and placement adjusted in future forecasts. High
temperatures will range from the low 70s far north and far east to
readings in the low 80s southwest. Winds will be from from the
northeast at 6-12 mph.
Decreasing clouds are expected Thursday night with lows ranging
from the lower 50s northeast to around 60 southwest. Winds will be
from the east and northeast at 4-8 mph.
Friday through Monday.
The mid-level disturbance will continue to move further southeast
over South Georgia on Friday before moving northeast over the
Coast of the Carolinas this weekend. Longwave amplified ridging
will continue to build over much of the Mississippi River Valley
Region over the weekend while two upper lows potentially affect
much of the Eastern Seaboard and Northeast.
Dry conditions are forecast across our area as drought conditions
will persist. Temperatures will modify as highs return to the 80s
across all but the northeast portions of the area Saturday and
encompass much of the forecast area to start the next work week.
Low temperatures will bottom out Sunday morning with lows in the
upper 40s across portions of the north and northeast counties with
low 50s elsewhere, followed by widespread readings in the 50s to
start the next work week.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MVFR ceilings should mix out to VFR across much of the area by
mid afternoon with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms across
all but the southeast portion of the area but TS potential
remains too low to include in the TEMPO and PROB30 groups. Look
for shower and storm chances to decrease through the evening with
light winds becoming northerly overnight into early Wednesday
morning.
05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated shower chances with a few thunderstorms are forecast
today and tomorrow, however, widespread wetting rainfall is not
expected and rain amounts will be too light to help the ongoing
drought. RH values are forecast to remain above 50% each afternoon
through Friday. Winds today will be from the south up to 8-10
mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to continuing
drought and dry fuels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  83  59  74 /  40  10   0  10
Anniston    68  82  61  74 /  30  10   0  10
Birmingham  68  83  61  76 /  30  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  68  86  61  80 /  10  10   0  10
Calera      68  86  61  78 /  20  10   0  10
Auburn      69  85  65  75 /  10  20  10  10
Montgomery  71  87  65  80 /  20  20   0  20
Troy        69  85  65  79 /  10  20  10  20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion