Ancora New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

561
FXUS61 KPHI 071914
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass through the region early
Wednesday, then much cooler high pressure will build into the
area through the end of the week. The high pressure will shift
offshore by Saturday, then a coastal system may impact the
region by Sunday and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad trough over Ontario and Quebec will continue to translate
southeastward towards the region tonight and into early Wednesday.
The trough axis will pivot through the area Wednesday afternoon. At
the surface, a cold front will enter far northwestern portions of
our area late tonight, and will track through the area into
Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will quickly begin building in
after the passage of the cold front.
Widespread cloudiness will continue to overspread the region through
this afternoon and into the evening hours. A shower or two will be
possible across eastern PA this evening, but for the most part we
will remain dry until the overnight hours. As ascent continues to
overspread the region and the cold front approaches, widespread rain
will begin across our western counties and spread east through the
night. Some modest elevated instability is expected to be present,
so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with any embedded storms, but severe weather or
flooding are not expected to be concerns. Widespread rainfall
amounts of around 0.5-1.25" are expected, with some isolated higher
totals possible. Rain will come to an end from northwest to
southeast Wednesday afternoon with the passage of the cold front,
and skies will clear fairly quickly as well.
With southerly wind through the night continuing warm advection,
widespread cloudiness, and rain, it will be a fairly warm night.
Lows will generally be in the low-mid 60s, with upper 50s for the
Poconos and into portions of far northern NJ. Wednesday will feature
temperatures close to normal ahead of the cold front, dropping after
its passage. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s for
most, and in the mid 60s across portions of eastern PA and northern
NJ. Winds will also increase out of the northwest with the frontal
passage, with gusts 20-30 mph possible areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The big story in the short term will be the temperatures.
Although we will see a cool down as early as Wednesday night,
winds should stay elevated enough to preclude any widespread
frost threat.
However, by late Thursday, pressure gradient will decrease,
resulting in prime radiational cooling conditions, especially
near and north of Philadelphia. As a result, expect low
temperatures in the low to mid 30s for areas NW of the I-95
urban corridor, and given the clear skies and nearly calm winds,
frost development appears increasingly likely. Sheltered
valleys north of I-78 have a good chance at a freeze. Interior
southern NJ could also see some frost development as well, but
this is less certain as winds could remain elevated enough
farther south to prevent any significant frost development.
Interior portions of Delmarva could drop into the upper 30s, but
winds should prevent any widespread frost formation there.
Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed northwest of I- 95
in future updates for Thursday night into Friday morning.
By Friday, cold advection will have ceased as the high pressure
shifts offshore. This will allow for some airmass modification,
and afternoon high temperatures should easily reach into the
mid 60s under mostly sunny skies. Surface winds will shift
onshore, which could allow for some marine stratus to push in
from the coast later in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the long term period, attention turns to a coastal low
expected to developed off the southeastern U.S. coast by
Saturday. It is likely to slowly drift northward. Depending on
how far north it gets and how close it gets to the coast, our
region could have another chance for widespread rain.
Additionally, the exact track will have implications for wind
and coastal flooding impacts (more information on potential
coastal flooding impacts is in the tidal flooding section
below).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR. Southwest winds around 10 kt with
occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt possible. An isolated shower can`t
be ruled out for RDG and ABE. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...VFR early, lowering to MVFR and eventually IFR at all
terminals from west to east overnight. Scattered showers are
possible initially, with steady rain beginning around 01-02Z for RDG
and ABE and spreading east through 07-08Z . Patchy fog/mist is
likely. South- southwest winds around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...IFR early due to low ceilings and rain. A cold front
tracking through the area will allow for quick improvement to MVFR
and then VFR after it passes through. Current expectations are
improvement 13-15Z for RDG and ABE, 15-17Z for the I-95 terminals,
and 16-18Z for MIV and ACY. South-southwest wind around 10 kt
becoming northwest at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt after the
passage of the cold front. High confidence in overall pattern, low
confidence in timing.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather.
Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions possible in low clouds and rain.
Gusty winds possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect beginning at 4 PM for
coastal waters from Sandy Hook southward to Little Egg Inlet, and by
11 PM for all ocean zones. South-southwesterly winds around 20 kt
with frequent gusts to 25 kt and seas 3-6 feet are expected this
afternoon through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, winds will
transition to northwesterly. There may be a brief period where winds
subside below advisory levels during this time, but they will again
increase to near 25 kt Wednesday night. Therefore, the SCA has been
extended through 2 PM Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday...winds and seas on the coastal waters should slowly
subside through the daytime hours.
Friday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.
Saturday night and Sunday...Winds and seas building. Gale conditions
possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A combination of high astronomical tides (King Tides) and
modest northeast winds is expected to result in areas of minor
coastal flooding with the Thursday morning high tide, and
potentially the Friday morning high tide as well. The areas
most likely to experience impacts will be along the Atlantic
coast from Ocean County and south to coastal Delaware, as well
as Delaware Bay, where surge values will be maximized from the
northeast winds. If the current forecasts hold, advisories will
likely be needed in future updates to highlight this threat.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ452-453.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ454-455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Johnson/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Johnson/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Cooper/Johnson
MARINE...Cooper/Johnson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion