861 FXUS63 KDVN 280804 AFDDVNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 304 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather continues through the period as high pressure is expected to remain in place. Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest days of the period with highs in the upper 80s and even low 90s.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Cold front that brought even drier air into the area has slowed tonight. Dewpoints in the mid 50s across the southern CWA and the upper 40s across the northern parts of the CWA along with a weak area of sfc convergence will continue through daybreak. Later this morning, flow will turn southerly and the cold front north as a warm front. From a sensible weather perspective, expect more of the same. Hot afternoon temperatures in the 80s to near 90 with low relative humidity. Unlike typical summer, this `dry` heat has the potential to leave you less aware of dehydration as most sweat quickly evaporates off of you. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids if doing anything outside.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Continued high confidence forecast for quiet weather as high pressure remains in place across the area. While the overall pattern may shift through the period, the sensible weather result will be the same. A lot of sun, lower humidity and temperatures in the 80s if not near 90. Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest as the H92 thermal ridge remains solidly in place across the area. After this, the omega block builds in. H92 temps drop a few degrees. However, with the dry soil and air, we still look to have deep mixing each day leading to temperatures in the 80s.
From the large scale synoptic picture, the potential is there for high level clouds from the tropical systems to move around the west edge of the high and potentially into the Midwest. If this occurs, the opacity of the high clouds will dictate how much of a cool down occurs late next week.
Past this, guidance always struggles with breaking down blocking patterns. Have low confidence in timing of the block breaking. Guidance continues to have pops the last few days of the forecast period. Do not have any confidence in this occurring at the current juncture.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds areW expected. No sig wx impacts to aviation expected.
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.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.
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SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Gibbs
NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion