Ansley, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

413
FXUS64 KLIX 181917
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
217 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
An upper level trough centered along to just east of the Appalachian
Mountains continues ot lift northeastward. In doing so, it`s
allowing for at least some weak ridging to build in behind it across
the northern Gulf Coast. That will aide in some suppression of
convection via subsidence. Moisture availability, or lack there of,
is the other limiting factor. PW on the last 2 local soundings were
~1.4". That`s slightly below average for this time of year but not
considered bone dry. As we saw yesterday, mesoscale pockets of
moisture can pool and eventually be lifted enough for convective
development. Looking at visible satellite attm, that area this
afternoon appears to be along/south of a line Gonzales to New
Orleans. If anything does develop, still appears like coverage will
be limtied. Offshore region has a bit more moisture to work with
which explains reflectivity echos in those coastal waters. Outside
of that, slightly above normal temps to continue.
MEFFER
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Not really looking at any appreciable changes through this upcoming
weekend. Although the weak upper level ridge fades, so does weak
upper trough to the northwest. Its not until late the forecast, next
week, that the pattern changes locally. Global models suggest a
deeper trough diving down into the Central Plains. In doing so, Gulf
moisture is drawn northward. This, combined with still strong
daytime heating, would be the main driver to increased rain chances.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A dry airmass over the region will keep prevailing VFR conditions at
all of the terminals through the afternoon hours. Visible satellite
does show scattered CU development but ceilings should be above
3kft. There is a low risk of additional thunderstorm activity
forming, especially near BTR and MCB where both recent radar and
sate imagery show moisture convergence zone. However, the
probability of a direct impact on a terminal is too low to include
in the forecast.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Generally benign conditions will persist across the waters through
the rest of this week as surface ridge remains either overhead or
just to the northeast of the local area. That placement of the ridge
in relation to the nearby coastal waters will result in generally
light to moderate east to southeasterly winds. Expect to also have
directional changes due to sea/lake/land breeze influences across
the near shore waters, sounds, and tidal lakes. Waves and seas will
generally be in the 1-2 ft for nearshore and protected waters with 2-
 4 ft in the outer waters.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  68  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  66  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  70  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  66  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion