Anton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

253
FXUS64 KLUB 231123
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near
  the frontal boundary this afternoon, primarily in the southern
  Rolling Plains.
- Much cooler Wednesday with fall-like temperatures expected with
  warmer weather returning towards the end of the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Radar imagery as of 9 PM CST showed a line of high based
thunderstorms moving towards the TX/NM state line. There have been
several reports of strong to severe wind gusts associated with
outflow boundary ahead of this line of storms, which has also lead
to reduced visibilities of less than a mile in some areas across
eastern New Mexico. As previously expected, these storms will likely
weaken as they enter the FA and track through the Caprock due to the
lack of moisture and overall forcing present this evening. The upper
level shortwave trough was currently analyzed over the Intermountain
West via water vapor imagery where it will continue to spiral
towards the Rockies early Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
Meanwhile the surface low out ahead of the system will shift east in
response to shifting H5 system, allowing for the associated cold
front to accelerate southward into the region. Latest hi-resolution
guidance depict the front moving through portions of the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle around daybreak. The front will be
oriented from southwest to northeast and is expected to reach areas
from Denver City to Lubbock to Childress by mid-morning. From there
models show the FROPA slowing down slightly, entering portions of
the southeastern Rolling Plains by the early afternoon. All this to
say, there will be a large gradient in temperatures across the FA,
so long as the front remains on track as anticipated, with warmer
highs in the low to mid 90s across our southeastern counties and
cooler highs in the 80s across our northwestern counties.
As the FROPA marches through the FA, there is the potential for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop along the boundary.
However, given the faster progression of this front PoPs look to be
confined across much of the southeastern Rolling Plains where the
front will likely linger through the afternoon, with the best
chances to our south and east. Overall severe threat remains low, if
any thunderstorms develop, although a strong to severe wind gust
cannot be ruled out given the inverted-v nature of forecast
soundings. By the late afternoon into the overnight period, the
upper level shortwave is expected to be fixated just to our
northeast in CO with the associated H5 jet centered across the
northern Texas Panhandle. This will place the FA within the right
exit region of the 50+ knot jet, supplying plentiful jet dynamics
for shower and thunderstorm development. Although the region will
reside beneath supportive jet dynamics, similar to previous
forecasts, the lack of low to mid-level moisture across the region
may limit the overall coverage of PoPs. That being said, moisture
looks better compared to recent runs as modest moisture advection
associated with the system may be sufficient enough for at least
scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday evening through the early
morning hours Wednesday. Additionally, due to the prolonged period
of the H5 jet being parked over the area we could even see the
column become saturated throughout the overnight period, similar to
NAM forecast soundings. Although confidence in this remains low and
quite overdone by the NAM. A reinforcing shot of the cooler airmass
is expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the surface
high digs south into eastern New Mexico. Models hint at some breezy
to gusty wind speeds occurring behind this boundary as it pushes
into the region overnight so will go ahead and up NBM winds slightly
to account for this.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The H5 shortwave trough will extend from the Southern Plains into
the Upper Midwest by mid-week, becoming positively oriented as it
continues to progress eastward. The base of the trough will continue
to be centered over portions of the FA Wednesday with the associated
H5 jet moving overhead of the FA. This will result in favorable jet
dynamics through Wednesday evening resulting in the potential for on
and off shower and thunderstorms throughout the day. Similar to the
short term, this will also be dependent on the amount of moisture
return we see with this system, and given the west to southwest flow
from H7 to H5 moisture will likely be limited. We begin to dry out
Wednesday evening as the trough exits the region and we lose jet
dynamics.  Fall like temperatures will return Wednesday, as post
frontal northerly winds continue to filter in a drier and cooler
airmass into the FA from the north. Overnight Wednesday temperatures
are expected to dip into the 50s across much of the FA, you may even
need to dust off the old jacket for your Thursday morning commute to
work! Similar conditions are expected Thursday, although slightly
warmer as upper level ridging begins to build off to our west,
increasing thickness and height values across the FA. Thankfully,
highs will only increase by a few degrees, thanks to the upslope
component to the wind, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Towards the
end of the work week into the weekend, the upper level ridge over
the Desert Southwest will continue to shift east in response to
an upper level low over Baja California moving inland. Ahead of
this system, a surface low will also develop within the lee of the
Rockies, allowing for southwest flow aloft to return across the
FA. These surface winds combined with subsidence aloft will lead
to temperatures back in the upper 80s to low 90s. Deterministic
guidance continues to differ on the exact track of this upper
level low as it inches closer to the region. However, ensemble
guidance is in good agreement of this system brining our next
chance of rainfall for areas across the TX/NM state line. For now
will continue to run with the NBM mentionable PoPs across the
aforementioned area until we see better agreement amongst the
models.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cold front is nearing PVW and CDS this hour ahead of light NNW
winds. Other than a few SHRA near CDS for the next hour, quiet and
VFR conditions will hold today. Stratus development looks likely
overnight with CIGs possibly reaching MVFR levels, but a greater
chance of TS at LBB seems more plausible.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion