Avoca, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

466
FXUS64 KSJT 201117
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
617 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
  the first half of next week.
- Temperatures trend hotter this weekend into Monday, then
  should be cooler by Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Expect hot and dry conditions again this afternoon. Also, mostly
sunny skies will make it feel even hotter. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 90s which is above normal for this time of year.
Scattered thunderstorms will probably develop this afternoon
across the Panhandle and Oklahoma in a warm sector with moderate
instability. These storms may make it south into the northern Big
Country late this evening and overnight. Going with low chances of
rain late tonight. No severe weather is expected but storms may
produce gusty winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An embedded disturbance will move across northern Texas on
Sunday. This may be enough to support a low chance for an isolated
rain shower or thunderstorm through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances
(20-30%) will largely be limited to areas near the I-20 corridor
and northward given the track of this disturbance.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate a
low pressure system developing across the Plains. The GFS and
ECMWF are showing a similar solution tracking the low across
Kansas, which is a bit further north than yesterday`s model runs.
Regardless, we may see a weak cold frontal boundary move into the
area on Tuesday night into Wednesday because of this system. This
frontal boundary will serve as a focal point for scattered
thunderstorms (30% chance) across our area as it moves through.
Slightly cooler temperatures will also result, but highs will
still remain in the middle to upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.
South winds will be a little gusty this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  71  96  73 /  20  10  20  10
San Angelo  92  68  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
Junction    93  67  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Brownwood   93  67  94  70 /  10  10  20  10
Sweetwater  94  71  97  72 /  10  10  20  10
Ozona       91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10   0
Brady       91  67  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion