Avon, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS62 KMHX 071914
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
314 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorm
chances to the area, heaviest rain is expected to be east of hwy
17. High pressure will build in from the north behind the
front. A shortwave moves along a stalled front offshore mid-
week bringing heavy rain chances along the coast. High pressure
builds in again for the end of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Broad troughing pattern of the past
several days persists across the eastern CONUS with a strong
shortwave diving across the Midwest this afternoon. At the
surface, cold front is bisecting the FA currently draped from
the Pamlico River towards Hatteras. Behind the front, gusty
northerly winds already being observed with gusts up to 20-25 kt
at times. We are already seeing scattered showers and a few
storms develop just ahead of this boundary in an area of
enhanced convergence with the diurnal sea breeze.
Precipitation threat will continue into this afternoon as
instability peaks in the 1500-2000 J/kg range in an airmass
characterized by temps in the mid to upper 80s and Tds in the
low 70s. Most likely zone for ongoing precip will be along the
Crystal Coast and typical convergence zones along the Albemarle
Peninsula. Cells have the potential to be efficient rainmakers
as PWATs climb north of 2", especially across the southern
coast. HREF LPMM depicts a narrow strip of 1-2" along the
Highway 24 corridor with isolated totals up to 4". For this
reason, WPC continues to carry a Marginal Risk for areas south
of Highway 264. Despite sufficient shear of 35-40 kt,
considerable dry air aloft will limit overall severe risk, but
if a stronger storm can be realized some strong wind gusts are
not impossible.
Shower and storm coverage wanes tonight as front drifts further
offshore and expansive high pressure intrudes from the
northwest, ushering in a much drier airmass with Tds in the mid
50s inland, but still 60s along the water. Lows hover in the low
to mid 60s as winds stay up and cloud cover lingers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sun...Little change in sensible weather tomorrow as
front lingers offshore and high pressure continues to build into
the area, except with a bit more clearing across the coastal
plain while cloudier conditions linger along the coast. Ongoing
shower activity along the frontal boundary is unlikely to bleed
along the coast. Cooler and breezier with pinched pressure
gradient, with highs in the upper 70s and winds gusting up to 25
mph inland, 30 mph along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...
Key Messages
- Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week
- Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as
   coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
Front stalls along the gulf stream to start the work week keeping
much of the precip offshore. Errant showers are possible
through early next week along the coast, originating from this
stalled front/coastal trough offshore as weak shortwaves move
through along it. NE flow behind the front as high pressure
builds in will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions
inland through much of next week. Mid- week, a slightly stronger
shortwave looks to move through along the coastal trough. This
will bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast and
perhaps even areas inland. WPC has our coast in a marginal ERO
for Tuesday 12Z to Wednesday 12Z. After this, high pressure
builds in again as front remains stalled offshore. Deterministic
guidance (CMC, GFS) are trying to show a weak low forming along
this stalled front off the FL/GA/SC coast next weekend as a
deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to
tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence
on the timing, track, and intensity of the low, if it even gets
resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 305 PM Sun...Mixed bag of flight conditions this
afternoon with VFR conditions from EWN southward but MVFR and
spotty IFR to the north, cleanly demarcating frontal boundary
draped across the region. Shower and thunderstorm threat,
currently ongoing primarily along the coast, will continue
through the afternoon and wane through evening with a risk of
brief but severe drops in instability with torrential rainfall.
Precip risk tapers off in the evening as front pushes offshore,
but MVFR deck will shift southward following the front, plaguing
mainly coastal terminals before scattering out by 12z.
Northeast winds persist overnight at around 10 kt.
VFR conditions expected tomorrow with skies scattering out, but
gusty conditions continue with gusts to 20-25 kt at times in the
afternoon as pressure gradient is pinched between the front
offshore and high pressure building in from the northwest.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow may
result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain this
coming week. Tuesday into Wednesday rain chances with drops in
cig and vis pick up, highest along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Cold front is currently stalled along the
Pamlico River eastward to Hatteras. North of the boundary, gusty
northerly winds already kicking in with gusts up to 20 kt while
to the south of the boundary flow remains at 5-10 kt. Seas, for
now, remain at 2-3 feet.
Front will continue to push across area waters tonight and stall
offshore tomorrow. Expansive high pressure will build into the
region from the northwest, and pressure gradient brings a
widespread increase of northeast winds up to 20-25 kt with gusts
up to 30 kt. A few odd Gale force gusts are possible across the
far outer waters, but occurrence is expected to be too isolated
to warrant an upgrade to headlines. Seas rise to 5-8 feet in the
stronger winds.
No headline changes were made from the previous forecast.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
Moderate NNE flow post frontal flow increases to 20-25 kt
(gusting to at or above 30 kts) Mon and Tue. Seas will build to
4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first
to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters
(off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day
Wednesday. Gale Watches were considered for coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound, but at this point
gusts of 34+ knots are not expected to be frequent enough.
Trends will have to be monitored, as even a 3-5kt uptick in fcst
winds will bring us to gale watch/warning criteria. Currently
HREF has a 20-40% chance of seeing gale force gusts late Monday
into Tuesday along and in proximity of the Gulf Stream.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion