Baird, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS64 KSJT 142003
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms
  today along and west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.
- Low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms on Thursday.
- Otherwise, conditions will continue to be dry and warm through
  the upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening mainly across our
western counties. One or two strong storms are possible given
moderate instability, but most storms will remain below severe
limits. A few of the CAMS indicate isolated storms developing
again Monday afternoon mainly across our northern counties. Most
of the area will remain dry though. Otherwise, highs on Monday
will be in the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico will result in
generally hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with overnight lows in the 60s.
Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper level trough will swing
across the Great Plains, weakening the ridge centered over northern
Mexico. In addition, a weak cold front will push south into the Big
Country Wednesday night into Thursday. The passage of the upper
level trough along with the weak cold front in the area will result
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with
the highest chances across the eastern Big Country. Highs on
Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Slight
chance PoPs will continue on Friday, mainly for our southeast
counties.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon and evening mainly across our western counties.
Confidence in coverage was too low to include a mention in the
TAFS, but will monitor radar trends and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, expect gusty winds to persist into the evening
before coming down overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  93  69  92 /  10  20   0  10
San Angelo  68  91  66  90 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    65  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  92  67  91 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  68  91  68  90 /  20  20   0  10
Ozona       67  89  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       68  89  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...42

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion