Bearcreek, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

473
FXUS65 KBYZ 121704
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1104 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A good chance for precipitation (30-70% chance >0.5 inches from
  Billings east) Today through Saturday.
- Highs 75-85 today cools into the lower 70s Saturday.
- Drier and warmer (lower 80s) Sunday and Monday.
- Another storm system brings additional widespread rain chances
  and cooler temperatures Monday night through Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were lifting north
and east over central and eastern areas this morning as an upper
trough and associated jet max move into the region. A few strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms remain possible later this
afternoon and evening. Have updated PoPs and weather to current
trends. STP
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Saturday night...
Area will be under an upper level trof for the next couple of
days. The core of this trof will stall out mainly to the west of
the forecast area, leaving SC/SE Montana on the southwesterly jet
stream side of the system. Periods of energy and mid level
moisture will flow over the area the next few days providing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the short term.
Can`t rule out a few stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, however as we saw on Thursday cloud cover and morning
convection may keep temperatures cool enough to prevent reaching
full convective potential.
Best period for precipitation (50-80% chance across the forecast
area) looks to be overnight Friday night into Saturday morning as
the core of the upper trof makes its closest approach maximizing
instability and upper energy. Saturday afternoon and evening will
see most of the upper energy shift to the north dragging the
better precipitation chances with it. Probabilities for half an
inch or more of precipitation are maximized from Billings east
across SE Montana ranging from around 45% near Billings to over
70% for Baker and Ekalaka. Probabilities for over an inch range
from 50 to 60% for areas from Rosebud county east across SE
Montana as well. Western zones miss out on the more widespread
heavier precipitation as we stay on the downslope side of the
system and upslope winds don`t really get going as a result.
Temperatures today are forecast to range from the upper 70s west
to the mid 80s east. However, the cloud cover and showers could
reduce highs 4 or 5 degrees in some areas, similar to Thursday.
Saturday will see below average temperatures in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, thanks to the proximity of the upper trof and the more
widespread shower activity. Chambers
Sunday through Thursday...
By Sunday, the northern part of the split low will move off into
Canada as the southern part brings energy up into far eastern MT.
This will bring about a 15-20% chance of precipitation Sunday.
Brief ridging will build back in for Monday ahead of troughing
Monday night into Tuesday. Currently, there is about a 35-65%
chance of at least a half an inch of precipitation for the region
as a whole for this time frame. For Wednesday into Thursday,
ensembles show shortwave ridging building back over the region,
allowing for warming and dry conditions. High temperatures will
rebound back into the 70s and low 80s for Sunday and Monday
before cooling down into the 60s to mid 70s for the remainder of
the period. TS
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will lift north and east
through central and eastern areas today and into the evening,
becoming more widespread overnight. A few thunderstorms could be
strong to severe this afternoon and evening with heavy rainfall,
wind gusts to 50 kts and large hail. In general, VFR will prevail
with MVFR conditions possible with showers/thunderstorms. STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 056/069 053/080 055/080 054/068 052/072 050/077
    3/T 76/T    31/U    13/W    46/T    42/W    10/U
LVM 078 045/069 044/077 045/074 042/066 041/072 043/077
    3/T 35/T    31/B    14/T    45/T    31/U    00/U
HDN 082 054/070 049/080 050/082 051/069 049/072 046/077
    5/T 87/T    21/B    11/U    45/T    53/W    10/U
MLS 083 059/072 054/076 053/082 054/076 053/073 050/075
    5/T 78/T    32/W    11/U    33/T    53/W    11/U
4BQ 080 059/070 053/072 053/080 054/072 052/069 049/073
    3/T 77/T    32/W    11/U    23/T    43/W    21/U
BHK 084 056/074 052/073 050/081 051/076 049/071 048/073
    3/T 89/T    43/W    21/U    22/T    43/W    21/B
SHR 079 050/070 044/076 047/080 046/068 044/068 043/075
    4/T 86/T    22/W    12/W    46/T    54/W    11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion