Beaumont, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

702
FXUS63 KICT 201719
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms are expected to be ongoing this morning,
  then we may see a brief lull during the midday hours before
  activity redevelops again late in the day and continue into tonight.
- Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s over
  the upcoming week with multiple chances for showers and
  storms.&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A complex of showers and storms over south central Kansas early this
morning was drifting slowly ESE across southern KS. Isentropic
upglide/WAA is progged to gradually build eastward as we move
through the morning hours as the LLJ slowly veers with time.
Training storms may deliver some localized flooding concerns but
elevated CAPE in the 500-750 J/KG range or lower may limit the
severe weather threat. PWATs are progged to rise into the 1.5-1.8
inch range over parts of southern KS which is around 150 percent of
normal for late Sept. The forecast for today will remain
challenging. Some of the short range models suggest we will see a
stable regime in the wake of morning showers and storms while others
show some recovery in the afternoon, especially across southeast KS
where some robust sfc-based convection could materialize.  The
current plan is to maintain some afternoon pops over southern KS
where we could see some breaks in the clouds and quickly recover.
This was handled well in the previous forecast with only minor
changes. We could see a narrow window where some sfc-based strong or
perhaps a severe storm or two could develop but 20-30 kts of 0-6km
bulk shear/poor mid-lvl lapse rates should preclude more widespread
organized severe storms.
Another pv anomaly is progged to emerge from the Rockies tonight
bringing an additional round of elevated showers and storms to much
of the area. PWATs are progged to remain in the 150-175 percent of
normal range allowing for efficient rainfall and localized flooding
concerns. Showers and storms may linger into the day on Sunday,
especially over eastern Kansas with highs topping out in the 70s for
most areas.
Mon-Wed...Shortwave ridging is progged over the Central Plains on
Monday with a break in the action anticipated. This break is
expected to be brief as another robust mid/upper trough builds into
the Rockies late on Monday. A complex of storms developing over the
Central High Plains is progged to sweep eastward Monday night
impacting much of the area during the overnight hours. This slow
moving mid/upper trough will continue to bring unsettled weather to
the region on Tue as Wed as it slowly shears eastward.
This trough is progged to translate eastward over the Middle and
Upper Mississippi Valley area on Thu-Fri allowing the mid/upper
ridge to build into the area. Seasonable temperatures are expected
to return as dry weather prevails late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions have returned at all sites and -SHRA/TSRA has
pushed southeast of all sites. These VFR condition will
continue through the afternoon and evening hours. Low VFR or
MVFR CIGS may return after 06Z at all sites as shower and storm
chances return. Model still remains mixed with the placement of
-SHRA/TSRA tonight into Sunday morning, therefore have opted for
 PROB30s at all sites with the most likely time window.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion