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Beaver Creek, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS63 KFSD 211924
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected after 3-4 PM this afternoon. A couple of severe storms will be possible, with half dollar size hail and 50-60 mph wind gusts the greatest risks into the late evening.

- Fog is expected again tonight into Monday morning. Locally dense fog with visibility below one mile is possible.

- Lingering thunderstorm risks on Monday afternoon and evening, through greatest chances remain along and south of US Highway 20. Severe weather risk is very low.

- A few rain chances early this week; otherwise, dry with temperatures near to above normal into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

NOW THROUGH TONIGHT: Have seen a few weak showers develop early this afternoon from roughly Mitchell northeast toward Marshall and Tracy, MN. Given the cap still in place, these showers have been struggling to maintain themselves for more than about 30 minutes. Focus of the development so far has been in the vicinity of the somewhat diffuse warm front, from south of Winner to near Mitchell to Marshall (easier to pick out with the wind shift). We`ve warmed into the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mid and upper level low continues to spin across northern MN, with a trough swinging through the Dakotas into NE today - evident on water vapor satellite imagery. This, along with a warm front across the area brings shower/storm chances this afternoon and into tonight. Capping in place through the early afternoon, so it may take a bit of time for the cap to break and storms to form. Storms appear most likely across southwestern MN where the synoptic forcing (vort lobe, WAA, and proximity to the upper low) is most coincident with the boundary. Confidence is lower in the southwestern extent of storms through tonight, but could see development back into northern NE. Expect storms to begin developing around 3-4 PM, although some CAM guidance this morning has begun to trend later (toward 5-6 PM). Storms may linger into the overnight hours in southwestern MN and far northern IA where the LLJ is strongest.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, although the strongest shear and instability appear to be offset in space and time this afternoon and into tonight. However, still could see 1000- 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, 25-30 kts of bulk shear (up to around 35 kts in southwestern MN) and mid level lapse rates around 6.5-7 deg C/km. Main hazard with any stronger storms will be hail to half dollar size, with secondary hazard of wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Although risk remains very low, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out this evening given the anticipated proximity of storms to the boundary and low LCLs across southwestern MN and far northern IA. 0-1 km shear around 10-15 knots is more on the marginal side for this threat, but there is enough instability and shear in the lower levels to keep an eye on the threat. Severe risk should largely diminish by 11 PM. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with storms, with PWATs around 1.25 inches and a deep warm cloud layer. Not expecting widespread heavy rain, but some locations could pick up a quick 1" or more of rain.

Fog is expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning as mid levels dry out leading to clearing skies. Winds become light and somewhat variable over most of the area and ample low level moisture supports fog development. Lows fall into the 50s.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: Some uncertainty remains in place for Monday and Monday night as the region is squarely in split flow aloft - with one trough over the UP of MI and the other ejecting out of the Rockies. Additionally, will have to see how convection evolves today and tonight and where the surface warm front ends up. Most guidance keeps the warm front near or south of US Hwy 20, so have continued to follow the NBM guidance (keeping pops near/south of this area). Severe risk remains low during the afternoon and evening hours, with the better forcing, instability, and shear displaced and predominately south of our area. Warm again tomorrow with highs again in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows tomorrow night still in the 50s.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: Split mid and upper level flow into mid week as low pressures meander into the Midwest by early Thursday. This should keep cloud cover and some lower end rain chances across the area through mid week. However, ridging builds back in late week and into the weekend. Expect dry conditions to prevail late week and onward. Temperatures through the week will be near to above average, warmer toward the weekend. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Beginning to see some isolated showers develop between KMHE and KMML/KTKC early this afternoon. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop later this afternoon and continue through tonight. Greatest chances across southwestern MN and into northwestern IA. Lower confidence on how far southwest activity develops, so maintained PROB30 mention at KFSD but removed at KSUX due to the lower confidence. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible with hail and strong winds the main threat. Storms could lead to MVFR/IFR conditions and erratic winds. Most of the area will be dry after 22.06z, although a few storms may linger with the LLJ in southwestern MN and far northern IA.

Clearing is expected as storms taper off overnight, and with light and variable winds, fog is once again expected to develop. May see visibility below 1 SM at some locations, but will keep TAF sites IFR for now. Fog should mix out mid morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG AVIATION...SG

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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