Bellingham, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS63 KMPX 230752
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog continues this morning through 9-10am, burning
off by late morning. Additional patchy dense fog is possible the
next few nights.
- Quiet weather with temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s
  through the week and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
I`d like to start this AFD off with a brief apology, as last night I
had a poorly worded statement regarding the autumn equinox that made
it seem like it was in October instead of yesterday. Sometimes these
night shifts can make your brain say one thing while your fingers
say something completely different! Regardless, now that we are post-
equinox, we begin to lose daylight even more rapidly as we move
through the next couple of months, but on the bright side it also
means only 3 months until we start getting that daylight back....
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a developing bank of
fog within portions of southeastern Minnesota, with already dense
fog over central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin within proximity
of Lake Superior. This is going to be a repeat occurrence over the
next few nights as we will have upper level ridging and surface high
pressure lingering, meaning light winds and relatively clear skies
allowing radiational cooling to bring temperatures down to dew
points every night. The same pattern is expected to dominate through
the rest of the week as an upper level rough occludes over the Great
Lakes, resulting in northerly flow aloft and weak surface winds with
the precipitation shield around the low remaining over the eastern
Great Lakes and eastern coast of the US. This is evident with on
look through the forecast with PoP under 5% through the entirety of
the next 7 days, with the longer range outlook looking just as
favorable for an extension of September even as we head into
October. The one potential deviation from the dry and quiet pattern
would be late Friday into Saturday as a quick moving trough sweeps
across northern Minnesota, with the position as of right now
predicted to be too far north to give anything but the northernmost
counties any sort of shower chances. Guidance is also split on just
how far south it reaches, with the ECMWF the only longer-range
global model that produces any measurable precipitation for the
state while the GFS/CFS show a much weaker trough that stays more to
the north.
Ensemble guidance shows temperatures generally remaining in the 70s
with little chances for precipitation over the next couple weeks as
the pattern remains unchanging. It is looking like the beginning of
October will pick up right where September leaves, with continued
70s and relatively dry weather shown within the Climate Prediction
Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with a large area of warmer than
normal conditions dominating the northern US including our entire
area. This warm stretch may delay peak fall colors, especially as
overnight lows will also be much warmer than normal. For some
context, the longer range GFS ensemble shows low temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s for the first week of October, compared to a
normal of 47 on October 1st down to 44 by the 8th. The coldest
ensemble that reaches this period is the CMC by far, however we
still remain 5-10 degrees above normal for both lows and highs
during this stretch. Suffice to say, keep getting those outdoor late
summer activities in while this lasts as it looks to be a great
period of time to enjoy the weather before our inevitable drop
towards the colder temperatures of mid to late Fall and early
Winter.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Only issue will be low/stratus fog thru sunrise. IR satellite
clearly shows a swath of low stratus sliding SW from Lake
Michigan, thus making the northern and eastern TAF sites most
susceptible to flight category restrictions, down to LIFR as
times. Because of weak low-to-mid flow, the low stratus may hang
on until late morning, followed by VFR conditions into the
afternoon and evening. Early-on thinking is similar conditions
may well develop again tonight into Wednesday morning given the
continued weak NE flow which will again bring low level moisture
in from Lake Michigan under the nightly inversion.
KMSP...Main window for reduced conditions looks to be from about
11z on through the remainder of the morning push, with potential
for ceilings as low as 300ft at times. Will monitor conditions
and AMD as needed but confidence is high on at least low stratus
if not ground fog and visibility restrictions.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Kanabec-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion