Belt, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

276
FXUS65 KTFX 260523
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1123 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- warm and dry conditions are generally expected through the
  weekend except for a brief cool down on Friday
- Periods of breezy to windy conditions through Saturday,
  strongest along the Rocky Mountain Front Friday night.
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity and general unsettled
  conditions return early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 800 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025/
This evening winds will increase along the Rocky Mountain Front
and adjacent plains. Stronger winds will spread to the rest of
North-central Montana tonight after a cold front passes through
the area. It will be a warm night across North-central Montana
with cooler high temperatures across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana tomorrow. It will be windy tomorrow across
North-central and Central Montana. For the update, overnight lows
across North-central Montana were increased to better reflect current
observations and trends. Maximum relative humidity across North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana was decreased to
better reflective current observations and trends. Wind speeds and
wind gusts across North central Montana were increased to better
reflect current observations and the latest model guidance. The
rest of the forecast is on track. -IG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 800 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Strong ridging aloft will maintain late summer/early autumn heat
over the Northern Rockies for the remainder of this afternoon
before a fast moving Pacific trough and cold front brings a brief
cool down late tonight into Friday. Despite this morning`s
stubborn inversions, the primary concern remains the very warm,
dry, and breezy to windy conditions raising meteorological
elevated fire weather concerns through this evening, particularly
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains west of I15.
The cold front will bring a period of gusty west to northwesterly
winds and some passing mid- to higher cloudiness tonight into
Friday, but that`s about extent of the expected impacts aside form
the already mentioned brief cooldown. The ridge aloft quickly
rebuilds Friday night and brings a return to lower elevation 80
degree weather for the remainder of the weekend. Westerly flow
aloft will be on the stronger side through early Saturday, which
will encourage overnight mountain wave activity and a period of 40
to 60 mph wind gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front, including
the Glacier National Park area. Winds aloft and at the surface
then relax for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
Southwesterly flow aloft develops over the Northern Rockies by
Monday in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
This will increase moisture and instability availability for
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity while temperatures
remain above average through mid- week. The trough axis then
swings northeastward through the the western half of the sate
during the mid- week period and brings breezy to windy conditions,
additional showers, and perhaps even some high mountain light
snow. - RCG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Breezy to windy conditions through Saturday...
Breezy to windy conditions are expected over much of central and
north-central MT tonight into Friday with probabilities for gusts
over 35 mph increasing ever so slightly to the 50 to 70% range.
The elevated fire risk should be on the lower side on Friday given
the strongest winds looking to occur earlier in the day and
afternoon temperatures cooling 10 to 15 degrees from today`s
highs. Mountain wave activity will bring more windy conditions to
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent high plains Friday night
into early Saturday with areas along and west of the highway 89
corridor currently having around a 50% chance for 50 mph wind
gusts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms and more breezy to windy
conditions next week...
A more active southwesterly flow aloft will bring increased
shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Areas along the
Continental Divide and Southwest Montana are still looking to see
the most rainfall with probabilities for totals over a quarter
inch continuing to run between 50 and 70% for the 72 hour period
ending next Thursday at 6 am. The trough is progged to swing
through the Northern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday with newer
deterministic models taking a more northerly path. This solution
may result in more windy conditions and slightly less
precipitation than previous forecasts; however, colder air aloft
may still dust the higher mountain peaks with some light snow.
- RCG
&&
.AVIATION...
26/06Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
Period. During the majority of this TAF period at all but the KBZN
and KWYS terminals there will be gusty winds. The strongest winds
will be at the KCTB terminal. Between now and 26/14Z there will
be isolated instances of low-level wind shear across North-central
and Central Montana. During the majority of this TAF period there
will be mountain wave turbulence. -IG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  73  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  68  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  51  72  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  72  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  32  68  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  72  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  49  70  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  51  69  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion