Benedict, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

864
FXUS61 KLWX 190648
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure drifts south and east of the area today with a
backdoor cold front set to push through tonight. The front stalls
across southwest Virginia Saturday as high pressure wedges south
from northern New England. Wedging high pressure remains overhead
Sunday with a warm front set to cross the Alleghenies Monday into
Tuesday. This front combined with low pressure off the North
Carolina coast will bring renewed precipitation chances to the
region heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Unseasonably warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions today as
surface high pressure slides east of the region. The drier air in
the low levels with high pressure nearby has suppressed most of the
fog to the western shore of the bay and river/high mountain
valleys this morning. Any residual fog looks to burn off prior
to 10am with calm/light winds this morning and temps in the 50s
and 60s. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds will return this
afternoon as high pressure slides away and a back door cold
front approaches from the north. The front appears to be
moisture starved for most outside of an isolated shower or two
west of the Blue Ridge. Current 00z hi-res CAM guidance
continues to hold onto the notion of a spotty shower or two for
portions of western MD and perhaps as far east as the western
suburbs of Baltimore/Washington DC. Overall most will remain dry
as the front crosses later this evening and into the overnight
hours.
With increasing low level thicknesses expect temperatures to run 5
to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will push
toward 90 degrees east of the Alleghenies with upper 70s and low 80s
across the mountains. Overnight lows will fall back into the upper
50s and low 60s with broken to overcast conditions for a brief part
of the night as the backdoor cold front pushes through.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to sink south of the area before stalling
over southwest Virginia. Meanwhile, broad high pressure over eastern
Canada will wedge it`s way south bending the stalled front back
across the Alleghenies and Appalachians Saturday into Sunday.
Overall the weekend will be dry for most of the forecast area
outside of areas west of the Blue Ridge (especially along and west
of the Alleghenies) where the stalled front will reside. 00z hi-res
CAMS and synoptic guidance also show a shortwave disturbance riding
along the stalled boundary Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
This will further enhance probabilities of precipitation (25-40
percent) across portions of the Shenandaoh Valley and Allegheny
Mountains. Even with that said, coverage of any shower and
thunderstorm activity will be spotty to scattered given the residual
high pressure wedge nearby. Any rain that we do see will be welcomed
especially over the mountains given the current moderate to severe
drought conditions. Highs Saturday will be back around normal for
this time of year in the upper 70s and low 80s (low to mid 70s
mountains). Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 50s
and low 60s as more of a maritime airmass takes hold especially east
of the Blue Ridge. With wedging high pressure and a front nearby
expect a subtle pressure gradient over the region. This will result
in wind gusts of 10 to 20 mph mainly over the ridges and near the
waters.
Wedging high pressure over northern New England and the Gulf of
Maine will remain locked east of the Appalachians Sunday. Onshore
flow will ensure as a result leading to cooler temperatures and
increased low level clouds across the region. Some patchy drizzle
and light shower activity also cannot be ruled out especially east
of the Blue Ridge. Highs Sunday will range from the low to mid 70s
across the mountains and northeast/central MD to upper 70s across
central VA. The stratus looks to hold tough across most of the area
throughout the day likely eroding across central and eastern VA
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the stalled front
will remain draped over the Alleghenies eventually lifting north and
east as a warm front Monday for the upcoming workweek.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure along the Northeast corridor Monday morning
will begin to weaken as it shifts offshore with southerly winds
returning as surface high pressure retreats. Showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms will be possible west of the Blue Ridge Mountains
Monday afternoon and areawide Tuesday and Wednesday as warm and
humid air returns into the region. A backdoor cold front will drop
into the area Wednesday afternoon/evening with high pressure
building over northeast Maryland for the second half of the week.
Showers will still remain possible across southwest areas along the
vicinity of the stalling front and as low pressure over the Mid-
South lifts northeast through the end of the week.
.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Surface
high pressure will gradually slide south and east of the area this
afternoon with a moisture starved backdoor cold front set to cross
tonight. Winds will remain light out of the west and northwest today
at less than 10 kts. Winds will shift to the north and northeast
tonight before turning easterly Saturday as the front sinks south of
the region. With a subtle pressure gradient in place between the
front stalling to the south of the area and high pressure to the
north expect gusts between 10-15 kts Saturday afternoon and evening.
Sub-VFR conditions look to return as early as Saturday night as
onshore flow increases.
Low level clouds (i.e stratus) will lead to sub-VFR conditions
especially at terminals east of the Blue Ridge Sunday into Sunday
night. Some light drizzle and showers cannot be ruled out although
confidence is low. VFR conditions return Monday into Tuesday as a
warm front lifts through the region. This will shift the winds from
the east on Sunday back to the south Monday and Tuesday next week.
Expect gusts between 10 to 15 kts mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Highest probabilities for shower and thunderstorm
activity this weekend look to remain west of KMRB and KCHO. This
activity becomes a bit more widespread by the middle of next
week amongst the terminals leading to the potential for
temporary reductions.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through this evening as high
pressure slides south and east of the waters. A moisture starved
backdoor cold front will cross the waters later this evening into
tonight shifting the winds back to the northeast and easterly
direction. This may lead to brief SCA level northerly channeling
across the northern and middle portions of the Chesapeake Bay early
Saturday morning into Saturday midday. An additional period of SCA
conditions are possible over the open waters of the bay and tidal
Potomac late Saturday night into Sunday with increased onshore
easterly flow.
SCA conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning in
southerly channeling. Scattered showers and t-storms are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
North/northwesterly winds will lead to decreasing tidal anomalies
through the weekend. Sensitive locations including Annapolis,
Straits Point, and Alexandria will reach action stage during the
high tide cycles but are not expected to reach minor flood
stage.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion