Bergman, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

361
FXUS64 KLZK 081732 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
-Temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below average are to be expected
 across the state from today through Tuesday.
-Into the middle of the workweek, temperatures will become near
 average to a few degrees above average.
-Rain chances are absent from the forecast across the state of
 Arkansas over the next seven days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A tranquil and unseasonably cool start to the week will gradually
give way to a significant warming trend across Arkansas by mid-week,
with dry conditions persisting through the entire duration of the
forecast period from today (Monday) through the weekend. This
forecast is a high confidence forecast with the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM
all in cohesion regarding the synoptic features and their placement
which will be the harbinger of weather conditions across Arkansas
over the forecast period.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
A prominent upper lvl trof is situated over the Eastern region of
the CONUS. As a result, northwesterly flow will setup over Arkansas
which will promote cool and dry conditions across the state. At the
sfc, a center of high pressure will meander across the region and
assist in keeping temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average
compared to normals for this time of the year.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
By mid-week, the trof positioned over the Eastern region of the
CONUS will lift northeastward, resulting in a significant pattern
shift. An upper lvl ridge will build eastward from over the Southern
Plains region of the CONUS extending over the Mid-South region of
the CONUS which will position the ridge over Arkansas. The ridge
will effectively shutoff the influx of cool air and lead to a period
of subsidence and compressional heating leading to a gradual rise in
temperatures across the state. Temperatures overall by mid-week will
be near average to slightly above average by 5 to 8 degrees,
especially transitioning into late week and into the weekend.
Into late-week and the weekend, the upper lvl ridge over the
Southern Plains and extending into the Mid-South regions of the
CONUS will be flanked by two upper lvl digging trofs. The position
of the upper lvl trofs with their pronounced upper lvl low pressure
centers will be over the Western and Eastern regions of the CONUS.
The presence of this upper lvl pattern configuration is know as an
omega block which will result in a stagnant pattern that will lock in
the warm and dry conditions across Arkansas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period with sfc winds
mainly out of the E/NE at less than 10 kts. Some increase in high
clouds is expected across the state as precip approaches from the
NW and dissipates before moving into the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  85  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         53  87  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       52  83  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    54  85  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  55  84  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     57  89  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      53  85  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  51  85  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        52  86  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     53  87  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   54  85  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         53  85  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      54  86  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...67

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion