383 FXUS64 KMEG 281614 AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into next weekend.
- Highs through much of the week will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with slightly cooler temperatures by next weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Clear skies prevail across the Mid-South as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Highs will reach into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon with light NE winds.
Surface high pressure will continue across the region with mostly dry and warm weather expected. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s will be the rule for most of the upcoming week. TD 9 is expected to head out into the Atlantic with little impact on the Mid-South. Before it heads out to sea, TD 9 interacts with the weakening upper trough currently along the east coast and a weak shortwave pushing south through the MS River Valley. This results in a weak shear axis across the Mid-South from early to mid week, which likely will result in no sensible weather other than perhaps some more CU. Models are picking up on a bit of surface moisture advecting in from the east on Wednesday which could result in a shower or two when combined with this weak shear axis. NBM pops show a slight uptick during this period.
Eventually this shear axis drifts south and become a weak upper low over the Gulf late in the week into the weekend. Mostly dry weather and mild weather will continue into next weekend with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.
Perhaps some rain chances will return early next week as the weak upper level low over the Gulf may push north into the region.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be northeasterly at 3-8 KTS.
KRM
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
No fire weather concerns are expected into next weekend. Dry conditions will continue with light winds.
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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
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PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...KRM
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion