Biggs Field, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

947
FXUS64 KEPZ 180449
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1049 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1012 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for through Friday,
   favoring northern and western areas Thursday and becoming
   areawide Friday.
- Moisture levels trend down for the weekend, allowing for lower
   storm chances into next week.
- Temperatures remain near normal this week with a warm-up over
   the weekend and into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Very little, if any deviation from previous forecast packages with
daily afternoon/evening showers and storms expected through the
Saturday as weak Monsoon upper level high pressure continues to pump
anomalous moisture across the region. A noticeable drying trend will
take place Sunday and onward.
For Thursday and Friday, the aforementioned upper level high will
strengthen over northern Mexico. Anomalous moisture will remain in
place across the region with global ensemble guidance indicating PW
values of 1.1-1.3" for the area, which is 30-60% above normal. That
said, the potential for heavy rain and instances of flash flooding
remain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
Wednesday through Friday will be at or slightly below the seasonal
average for the middle of September.
By this weekend, upper level high pressure to our south will begin
to move west and focus itself over Sonora and Baja. This
corresponding clockwise flow around said upper level high will
advect drier air across the Desert SW. Moisture values and rain
chances will slowly decrease starting on Saturday. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible on Saturday as residual
moisture remains in place, generally focusing over the high
terrain. DP temps will fall back into the 30s and 40s with PW
values between 0.5-0.9" on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are
expected areawide, though an isolated storm remains possible over
the Gila and Sacramento Mountains.
By early next week, ensemble guidance and their respected
deterministic solutions are hinting at a boundary pushing in from
the east/northeast. As we are currently at the tail-end of summer
and approaching the beginning of fall, not really expected much
sensible weather changes in terms of temperatures behind this
backdoor push. It may bring in some breezy east winds. Thereafter,
guidance is alluding to upper level high pressure re-establishing
itself over the Desert SW by midweek next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies currently FEW to
SCT at 8-12kft with SCT to BKN at 20-25kft, becoming SCT to
eventually FEW overnight and morning timeframe. Between 18-20Z, SCT CU at
10-15kft will develop across the area with isolated to scattered
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is
low with regard to direct impacts to terminals, so no mention in
TAFs.
Winds light and VRB through the overnight and morning timeframe,
winds will become generally S/SE at 4-8 knots after 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Plenty of moisture will remain over the area through Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms over area mountains each day.
Isolated storms for the lowlands through Thursday, but will be
more widespread on Friday. Northwest flow develops over the region
going into the weekend which will bring in some much drier air.
Temperatures by Sunday will be into the lower to mid 90s for the
lowlands with RH`s falling into the teens almost everywhere except
the Sacs by Monday. Winds will be light through Saturday but
Sunday will see some breeziness but speeds will remain below
critical thresholds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  88  69  90 /  20  30  30  20
Sierra Blanca            59  84  61  85 /  20  40  30  30
Las Cruces               63  84  62  85 /  20  30  30  40
Alamogordo               63  86  62  85 /  10  40  20  50
Cloudcroft               46  62  45  62 /  20  60  30  60
Truth or Consequences    61  84  62  81 /  20  20  30  70
Silver City              58  77  57  78 /  30  40  40  80
Deming                   64  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  50
Lordsburg                64  84  63  84 /  30  40  30  70
West El Paso Metro       69  85  69  88 /  20  30  30  20
Dell City                61  87  63  88 /  10  30  20  20
Fort Hancock             66  90  68  91 /  20  40  30  20
Loma Linda               61  79  62  82 /  20  40  30  30
Fabens                   66  88  67  91 /  20  30  30  20
Santa Teresa             66  84  66  87 /  20  30  30  20
White Sands HQ           66  84  65  86 /  20  30  30  50
Jornada Range            63  84  63  84 /  20  30  30  50
Hatch                    63  86  63  87 /  20  30  30  60
Columbus                 65  86  65  88 /  30  30  30  30
Orogrande                61  84  62  84 /  20  40  30  40
Mayhill                  51  72  50  73 /  20  60  20  60
Mescalero                51  74  50  74 /  20  60  30  60
Timberon                 50  71  49  71 /  20  50  30  50
Winston                  51  77  52  74 /  30  30  30  80
Hillsboro                59  83  59  83 /  30  30  30  70
Spaceport                61  84  61  83 /  20  30  30  60
Lake Roberts             52  79  52  77 /  30  40  40  80
Hurley                   59  79  58  80 /  30  40  40  70
Cliff                    61  85  60  84 /  30  40  40  80
Mule Creek               57  81  57  79 /  20  30  50  80
Faywood                  60  79  60  80 /  30  40  40  70
Animas                   64  84  62  85 /  30  50  30  60
Hachita                  62  83  62  84 /  30  50  40  50
Antelope Wells           62  84  61  85 /  40  50  30  50
Cloverdale               61  79  60  80 /  40  50  40  60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion