Blocher, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

364
FXUS63 KLMK 171954
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
354 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday, with ongoing
   abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions likely to persist.
*  Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the
   upper 80s to lower 90s. However, overnight low temperatures will
   be near normal with low 60s expected. Diurnal temperature swings
   around 30 degrees will continue for a few more days.
*  Rain chances return for later in the day on Saturday, and
   continue through Sunday and Monday. Unfortunately, rainfall
   amounts are expected to be light and unlikely to improve overall
   drought conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Skies are mostly sunny this afternoon, with only some SCT high-based
cu. High pressure over the region and a dry airmass will produce
fair weather through the short term period. Relatively deep mixing
will continue to help mix some drier air to the surface this
afternoon, with relative humidity values dipping into the 25-35%
range. Current temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s, but are still
expected to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon.
The cumulus will dissipate this evening, leaving us with clear skies
overnight. Temperatures will tumble back into the mid 50s to around
60 by early Thursday morning. Some patchy fog will be possible in
the Lake Cumberland region. Thursday is largely a persistence
forecast. Expect mostly sunny skies, with some SCT afternoon
cumulus. Afternoon temps will top out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Afternoon dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low to mid
50s, so at least our unusually warm afternoon temps will come with
comfortable humidity. Thursday night looks like another clear, quiet
night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most places. Our
coolest valleys should dip into the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
===== Friday - Friday Night =====
Mainly dry, warm conditions still appear likely to persist into the
first part of the weekend. An upper level trough over the Plains
will rotate east toward the MS Valley, with downstream ridging
lingering over the Ohio Valley. Some model solutions do suggest a
band of showers could perhaps linger across or slightly east of the
Mississippi River before diminishing late Friday. However, this
activity does not appear likely to reach central KY.
Look for mostly sunny skies Friday, with partly sunny conditions
later in the day. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the 89-94
degree range. Friday night looks partly cloudy, with lows in the low
to mid 60s.
===== Saturday - Tuesday =====
A series of mid-level shortwave disturbances are forecast to rotate
east from the Plains across portions of the Midwest this weekend,
with the stronger waves likely confined to the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Southerly return flow develops this weekend in the
wake of departing high pressure. This will allow renewed, steady
moisture advection into the region ahead of shortwave troughing to
the west. It still looks like we should stay mainly dry through
Saturday, but expect increasing chances for light rain Sunday into
early next week.
In particular, increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching
upper level trough will bring us higher shower/storm chances Sunday
afternoon through Monday. Unsettled weather could then linger
through at least Tuesday, if not Wednesday, depending on the
evolution of key synoptic features. However, forecast confidence is
lower beyond Monday due to larger model spread.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions likely through much of the period. Light winds are
also expected and will be somewhat variable tonight and Thursday
morning. However, generally easterly winds will increase to 5-8 kts
this afternoon before diminishing later this evening and veering a
bit more southerly overnight.
SCT cu near 7-8 kft will continue through early evening before
dissipating. Relatively deep mixing should mix some drier air to the
sfc this afternoon, helping to limit the fog potential early
Thursday. Cannot completely rule out brief, light fog at HNB and
BWG, but confidence is lower. Additional SCT cu looks likely Thu
after 16Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Thursday
     night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion