Blue Lagoon, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

272
FXUS62 KMFL 030701
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
301 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
An area of low pressure to the east of South Florida will continue
to support wet and unsettled conditions across the area through the
short term period. Satellite and radar imagery show the low sitting
between the Florida peninsula and the Bahamas early this morning,
and rain gauge data indicate the rainbands along the low dropped
widespread 1-3 inches of rain across southeast FL overnight, with
isolated spots up to 5 inches.
Model guidance shows this system very slowly drifting north-
northwest today into tomorrow, bringing repeated rounds of
rainfall across the region starting this afternoon and persisting
overnight. These additional rounds of rain could drop several more
inches over the area over the next 48 hours, especially if
training sets up over areas that already received several inches
of rain overnight, increasing the concerns for isolated urban and
flash flooding. Some portions of the East Coast metro could end up
seeing 4-6 inches between Friday and Saturday, , with the 00Z
HREF showing 40-50% chance that some isolated spots could exceed
those amounts over the 48 hour window. To that effect, WPC is
keeping East Coast metro under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of
Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday.
Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period
given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top
out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in
the low to mid 70s across the whole area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
By Sunday, the aforementioned mid-level low will be northwest of our
area, but its influence will still be felt across South Florida,
where conditions will remain wet and unsettled to end the weekend
and into the start of the new week. Rounds of scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon,
with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be
constrained north of Alligator Alley.
Surface high will being to build across the area early next week,
signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly
winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and
southwest.
High temperatures through the extended period will generally
range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid
70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will remain likely through the morning as breezy
easterly-northeasterly winds prevail. Scattered rounds of
SHRA/TSRA later today could lead to prolonged periods of MVFR/IFR
along the East Coast terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over
the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind formerly
Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today, and should
begin to subside tomorrow as swell diminishes.
Breezy easterly winds persist through tonight, ranging from 15-20
kts. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic
waters and the northern Gulf waters through later tonight into
tomorrow.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will
result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for
Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend.
Minor coastal flooding will be possible along the east coast this
weekend during high tides due to the upcoming king tide cycle,
and ongoing E/NE swell.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  75  87  76 /  70  50  60  40
West Kendall     85  75  87  76 /  70  40  60  30
Opa-Locka        86  75  87  76 /  70  50  60  40
Homestead        84  75  86  76 /  70  50  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  84  75  86  76 /  70  60  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  84  76  86  76 /  70  60  60  40
Pembroke Pines   87  76  89  77 /  70  50  60  40
West Palm Beach  84  75  85  76 /  80  60  70  50
Boca Raton       84  75  86  76 /  80  60  60  50
Naples           88  75  89  76 /  50  30  40  20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion