Bonnie Doone, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

976
FXUS62 KRAH 090532
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend southwest
into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...
* Continued pleasant weather with low humidity
* Increasing stratocumulus tonight, especially in the east
High pressure centered over the northeast US will continue to extend
southwest into the Carolinas today. A cool and dry northeasterly
flow will once again be the norm, with continued pleasant
temperatures. Highs will be some 4 to 8 degrees below normal,
ranging from the mid 70s in the NW to upper 70s east, with perhaps a
rogue 80 in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Dewpoints will
once again mix out into the 40s in the west and 50s in the east.
Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and especially the
evening and overnight, both from high clouds and some stratocumulus
building westward. An offshore coastal low is forecast to develop
off the NC coast along the stalled front tonight as mid-level energy
tied to an upstream trough over the Deep South and northern Gulf
tracks off the southeast coast. Guidance is not in the best
agreement on the strength of the low, which has implications on how
far westward the stratocu deck will extend. The GFS/NAM/HRRR show a
more developed low closer to the Outer Banks, which brings in 925 mb
low-level moisture as far west as the US-1 corridor. The ECMWF/CMC
models are more suppressed, which would keep the stratocu deck
mainly over the Coastal Plain. All in all, not much of a sensible
weather impact, but if the stronger solutions verify, could see some
patchy sprinkles or spotty showers early Wed in the northern Coastal
Plain. Lows will not be as cool due to cloud cover with mid 50s west
to low 60s east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...
* Continued below normal temperatures
* Decreasing clouds through the day
The offshore coastal low is forecast to track northeast, exiting our
area of influence. High pressure will otherwise remain entrenched
over the area from the central and southern Appalachians. Morning
clouds will be in the forecast due to low-level moisture wrapping
around the departing low. How far west the moisture extends remains
somewhat uncertain, but cannot rule out a few stray isolated showers
or sprinkles in the northeast during the morning. Otherwise, it
should be a dry day with temperatures again below normal in the mid
to upper 70s. Clouds will decrease during the evening and overnight
as high pressure builds back into the region. Generally clear skies
and light winds should favor better radiational cooling with mid 50s
to around 60 for overnight lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...
* Dry weather with near-normal temperatures likely.
Surface high pressure and longwave mid/upper level troughing will
continue to dominate over central North Carolina in the long term
period. Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normal from
Thursday through Monday. Thursday afternoon should have maximum
temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, with a few cooler spots in the
upper 70s. Temperatures should increase to the mid-to-upper 80s by
Monday. Rain does not look likely for Thursday through Monday. The
best chance would be from a stalled front of the NC coast and a few
shortwave troughs, however the surface high pressure looks to help
keep the region dry and no rain is expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...
There is high confidence in VFR conditions through most of the TAF
period. Generally high clouds will overspread the region over the
next 24-hours, but also the eastern sites will see some VFR
stratocumulus developing the afternoon and evening hours. That
stratocumulus could lower to some MVFR ceilings near RWI toward the
end of the TAF period. This would be related to an offshore low and
stalled front. Right now, guidance is still not in agreement on its
timing, with the more pessimistic guidance indicating MVFR as early
as 00z, and as late as 06z. For now, just introduced a TEMPO period
for restrictions. Otherwise, gusts will pick up again Tue during the
day, highest over the eastern sites to 20 kt, diminishing by the
late afternoon.
Outlook: MVFR ceilings are favored to reach RWI Wed and linger into
early Thu. These restrictions could reach as far west as RDU and
FAY, but confidence is lower with the westward extend at this time.
VFR should then prevail through much of the remainder of the TAF
period.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion