Booker, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

734
FXUS64 KAMA 082201
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
501 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the northern
Panhandles on the edge of a surface boundary that is moving
south/southeast. These storms are in a prime environment that
could quickly produce severe thunderstorms capable of large to
very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out, with the higher potential later this evening.
Due to the severe storm potential, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for the central and eastern Panhandles through
midnight tonight. Have made some minor edits to PoP grids to
account for the ongoing storms and expected evolution of the
system through the evening hours.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Thunderstorms, some could be severe, are possible for both today
  and tomorrow. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  hazards but a tornado is also possible with the storms today.
- High temperatures each day are forecast to be in the 80s to low
  90s.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances may return this upcoming
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts mostly clear skies
across the Panhandles with a few areas of scattered clouds for the
southeast and central Panhandles. The imagery also depicts wind
shear across the area really well, as low level clouds are moving
northerly and mid level clouds are moving easterly at this time.
Tremendous uncertainty remains regarding the severe thunderstorm
potential for later this afternoon into this evening. What is
known right now is that there is subtle surface convergence as
depicted by the wind field across the central Panhandles at this
time. Keeping or even increasing that convergence will be
paramount in generating any storms today as there is a distinct
lack of upper level support for storms. The 08/12z HREF suite has
also not helped build confidence in the location of storm
development or if storms will even form given the large variety of
potential solutions. With that being said, if any storms are able
to form, they could quickly become severe with large to destructive
hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. As low
level shear increases late this afternoon into this evening aided
by a 35-40 kt LLJ, a tornado will be possible with any isolated
supercell thunderstorms. Again, this is a highly conditional
threat but if any storms do form, they will need to be watched
carefully.
Sufficient moisture is forecast to remain in place for tomorrow
and may allow for additional thunderstorm development across the
region. A subtle shortwave may move over the region during peak
heating tomorrow afternoon to allow isolated to scattered storms
to form. The environment will remain conducive for storms to
become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being
the primary hazards once again. MLCAPE values may be slightly
lower than today, but with mid level temperatures being cool,
large hail will still be possible. Some drier air will move in
across the lower levels and at the surface so DCAPE values are
forecast to be higher so damaging wind gusts may also accompany
the large hail threat. Showers and storms may last into the late
evening into the overnight hours but the severe threat should
decrease through the night.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Even though upper level troughing will lift northeast across the
Plains late this week, high pressure looks to remain in place over
the Panhandles over the next week. This will lead to temperatures
being fairly stagnant over the next week with daily highs in the 80s
to low 90s. Shortwaves may continue to round the southern and
eastern periphery of the broad H500 trough and may generate rain
across portions of the Panhandles this week. Due to the wide range
in model guidance, rain chances are around or below 10 percent
through Friday afternoon. Friday night through this weekend, rain
chances may start to rise for the Panhandles as the trough begins
to move east and lift northeast. The base of the trough still
looks to remain north of the region but PVA may still be able to
generate some rainfall for the area this weekend.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Main aviation
concern will be the potential for thunderstorms at the sites this
afternoon through this evening. Confidence in impacts to any site
is too low to mention in the TAFs and will deal with amendments if
necessary. Winds over the next 24 hours will have a south
component with potential gusts upwards of 25 kts through early
this evening. Mid to high level clouds are forecast over the
terminals.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion