Boykins, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

409
FXUS61 KAKQ 181920
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles overhead tonight into Friday, with a brief
(but noticeable) warmup during the day Friday. A backdoor drops
southward through the area Saturday, bringing a return to
seasonably cool and cloudy conditions this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Skies continue to gradually clear today.
- Patchy fog possible tonight, especially across SE VA and NE NC.
The low pressure system responsible for the stagnant cool, cloudy,
and wet weather over the past 48-72 hours has finally dissipated
this afternoon. Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery
indicates the low center has opened up into a trough as it slowly
pulls away to the NE. In the wake of this feature, the flow has
shifted to the NW, which is funneling drier air and a clearing
sky into the region. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
to around 80 F outside of the cloud deck, with generally lower
70s across SE VA and NE NC under the clouds. Highs should be a
couple degrees higher than these current observations. High
pressure settles overhead tonight, with the attendant calm winds
and mainly clear skies allowing for a chillier night. Forecast
lows are in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest inland. Will
also need to watch for fog development late tonight,
particularly across interior portions of SE VA and NE NC. Some
models also indicate the fog could be dense at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Dry and seasonably warm Friday.
- A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Saturday, dropping
  temperatures to near to slightly below average for the
  weekend with mainly dry weather.
A weak NW-SE ridge axis sets up over the area Friday as high
pressure remains in place at the surface. Mostly sunny skies will
allow for a noticeably warmer day and forecast highs are well into
the mid to upper 80s. A bit cooler at the coast with sea breezes
dominating the wind pattern in the afternoon. Lows Friday night
around 60 F (upper 50s W/NW) with additional fog possible in SE VA
and NE NC.
Strong (1030+ mb) high pressure builds down in Quebec and northern
New England early Saturday. This synoptic pattern will push a
southward-moving backdoor cold front through the area early
Saturday. Temperatures will be generally cooler behind the front and
warmest (low-mid 80s) across the S/SW and coolest (70s) across the
N/NE. With developing onshore flow off the ocean, cloud cover may
increase later in the day and especially near the coast. In
addition, there is a low chance for a shower/storm or two inland
along the front and a separate chance for lighter rain or drizzle on
the Eastern Shore from the low-level easterly flow.  At this time,
confidence is not high enough for more than 20% PoPs. Lows Saturday
night will be milder with the moister airmass in place and range
through the 60s.
With high pressure wedging down into the area Sunday, the coastal
trough offshore of the Carolinas should sharpen some. While a weak
low could develop along this feature Sunday, this appears more
likely as it`s moving well offshore Monday. Mostly dry conditions
remain in the forecast, but there is some potential for
sporadic light rain or drizzle in spots Sunday morning and
afternoon, along with mostly cloudy skies. Should this outcome
materialize, highs would be on the lower side of the guidance
envelope and in the upper 60s/lower 70s vs. the upper 70s to
around 80 F in the forecast now.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures
  early next week.
- Rain chances potentially return by the middle and end of next week.
Upper heights rise a bit early next week as ridging builds offshore
of the SE CONUS coast and a strong upper low dives into the central
Plains. With the upper pattern trending less amplified, the latest
12z/18 model guidance has shifted the position of the sfc high from
well N of the area to around or just S of the area early next
week. This would favor a warming trend due to developing return
flow out of the S. Highs Monday around 80 F, with low-mid 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances return by the middle to
later portions of next week due to both an approaching cold
front Tuesday and the approaching upper low and trough, which is
expected to advance eastward through the MS Valley during the
middle and end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...
A persistent, but slowly eroding, cloud deck remains over most
of eastern VA, the lower MD Eastern Shore, and NE NC this
afternoon. Within this cloud deck, CIGs are mainly MVFR.
However, expect CIGs to slowly rise through this afternoon to
VFR as skies clear. This should happen first at RIC and SBY,
followed by ORF/PHF, and then ECG. Dry wx is expected for the
entirety of the TAF period. NW winds avg ~5 kt this afternoon,
becoming light or calm tonight. There is some signal for fog
across SE VA and NE NC late tonight into early Friday. Will
introduce mention of reduced VSBY in the ORF and ECG TAF,
though confidence is higher at ECG. Fog could be locally dense
at times. Mainly clear skies and VFR with a light W west wind
for Friday.
Outlook: Outside of localized instances of morning patchy fog,
dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. Another
round of sub-VFR CIGs may be possible Saturday night into Sunday
in the wake of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 249 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Benign marine conditions tonight through Friday night.
- A back door cold front this weekend may bring SCA conditions.
Low pressure has now moved further off the coast this afternoon as
high pressure builds into the area. Sustained northwesterly winds
are around 10 kts or less across the local waters, with gusts up to
15 kts. Seas are 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves in the Bay
range between 1-2 ft.
Sub-SCA conditions will continue through Saturday morning as the
gradient weakens further overnight. With weak flow expected
tomorrow, winds along the coast will be influenced by the seabreeze
in the afternoon. Heading into the weekend, a backdoor cold front
will start to approach the area overnight on Friday and move
southward across the coastal waters during the day Saturday. Winds
behind the front will quickly shift to the NE and increase to 15-20
kt, starting in the northern waters then expanding southwards as the
front drifts across the remainder of the locals waters. Winds will
remain elevated through Sunday, and seas will increase in response
to the period of increased flow. Seas of 5-6 ft are forecast for the
coastal waters Sunday through Monday, and waves will build to 2-3 ft
starting Saturday night. SCA are likely for seas in the coastal
waters, and winds in the Bay may reach SCA criteria but it will be a
marginal event as the waters have started to cool down thanks to the
prolonged period of cooler temperatures over the past month. By
Monday, high pressure will continue to build across the region and
winds will decrease in response, with sub-SCA conditions returning
likely for the remainder of the work week.
A moderate rip current risk is in effect for all beaches today.
Low risk of rip currents is expected everywhere Friday and
Saturday, with moderate risk of rip currents returning on
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 249 PM EDT Thursday...
Nuisance flooding is possible on the Chesapeake Bay side of the MD
Eastern Shore (near Bishop`s Head and Crisfield) with the Thursday
overnight`s high tide.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion