Boys Ranch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

441
FXUS64 KAMA 030520
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the
  Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s
  to lower 90s.
- Breezy to gusty southwesterly winds are expected across the
  Northwestern Panhandles Saturday afternoon.
- Uptick in moisture early to mid next week with a medium chance
  (30- 60%) of Wednesday high temperatures below 70 degrees across
  all the Panhandles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Latest CAM analysis has kept a weak surface boundary present over
the Central Panhandles. While chances are less than 5%, for
precipitation, most CAMS have been using this boundary as way to
keep cloud cover present during the afternoon and evening. This
cloud cover, much like it did yesterday, will aid in keeping
temperatures down slightly with locations only reaching into the
low 90s at their worst. Meanwhile in the northwestern portions of
the Panhandles, models are expecting a mid to low-level jet to
form over the afternoon period. This jet will have ample
opportunity to bleed down in these dry conditions allowing for
some breezy to gusty southwesterly winds across the northwest.
These winds only look to be stronger Saturday as more of the jet
progresses over the Panhandles thanks to the movement of an upper-
level trough moving across Utah and Western Colorado. Thankfully
these winds will have combat minimum RH values still above 20% and
still green vegetation that will keep any fire weather concerns
low. Otherwise, temperature do look to cool slight with the
movement of the trough as most locations look to be in the mid to
upper 80s Saturday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Latest trends form the models continue to the expected the
incoming trough to take a more northerly track. This placement has
seen precipitation chances diminish for Sunday as current
placement now has the Panhandles well in the dry slot. Still, the
Northern Panhandles have been able to hold on to a 10 to 20%
chance of an isolated storm brushing the area. Regardless, chance
for precipitation do look to improve as we move into the new week
with models seeing a secondary trough push into the Pacific
Northwest while an upper-level high pressure system builds across
the Southern Untied States. This set up, as we seen it do all
summer, will invite moisture from the gulf to return to the
Panhandles, At this time, models are seeing PWAT values rise back
above one inch, with this moisture looking to hold through the
middle or next week. For Monday in particular, models have hinted
of a stalled boundary forcing its way near the Panhandles thanks
to potential short-wave disturbance. This boundary will help
severe as lifting mechanism to take advantage of the expected
moisture and give the Panhandles a 20 to 30% chance for
precipitation.
From here models continue to struggle on how the trough will
progress eastward through the middle of next week. Presently, both
ECMWF and GFS do see this trough and its associated cold front
make it to the Panhandles sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday,
but how far south it actually goes is still a big uncertainty. The
NBM has kept favoring the idea of activity making following this
front way into Panhandles, with chances of precipitation now
sitting around 30 to 50%. Beyond this passage, models have only
struggle more with latest ensembles trying to force high pressure
back over the Panhandles. Regardless the progression of the low
will likely see temperature cool through next week with afternoon
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
High-resolution model guidance suggests there may currently be, or
will be, around 40 kt winds at 1500-2000 feet above KGUY which
would introduce low-level wind shear for the terminal. The winds
aloft should weaken some by around 09z. Otherwise, expect winds
to increase throughout the day and stay elevated through the
evening.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion