Bradenton, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

058
FXUS62 KTBW 271740
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure has shifted farther
eastward over Bermuda as an upper level low and deep troughing
extends south through the southeast U.S. and into the northeastern
gulf. On the surface, an area of low pressure is located over the
mid-Atlantic states with an associated frontal boundary extending
southward along the eastern seaboard, across northern Florida and
into the northeast and central gulf. This front will slowly makes
its way eastward across Florida today producing scattered showers
and isolated storms. By Sunday morning, the front weakens and moves
just east of Florida. This will bring a shift in the winds to a more
northerly direction, bring in some drier air from the north and will
also lower the rain chances, with the highest chances over the east
coast of Florida and the interior.
Now on to the tropics. The National Hurricane Center is issuing
advisories for Hurricane Humberto, located northeast of the Leeward
Islands and Tropical Depression Nine, located north of Cuba.
Humberto is expected to remain a major hurricane through the weekend
and into next week as it tracks west and then northwest. The latest
advisory tracks the storm between Bermuda and the east coast of the
U.S. early next week, and does not pose a threat to west central and
southwest Florida. The other area of concern is Tropical Depression
Nine located north of Cuba. This storm will intensify to a Tropical
Storm later today and will track to the north-northwest over the
Bahamas and then toward the southeast U.S. The latest track keeps,
what would be Imelda, to the east of Florida with no direct impacts
expected from the storm for west central and southwest Florida.
Drier air on the west side of this storm and high pressure building
in from the north will settle into west central and southwest
Florida producing pleasant weather next week with lower rain
chances.
Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period, with mid to
upper 80`s to low 90`s expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will
remain in the 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots prevail at all
terminals through the period. There`s a chance of showers and storms
through the day, so will hold VCTS at all terminals through around
22-23Z. Clearing conditions expected after 23Z and continuing into
Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A frontal boundary will move through the eastern gulf waters today
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. High
pressure will build back over the waters on Sunday and into early
next week with lower rain chances each day. Light winds 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less expected through Sunday morning, then a
slight increase in northerly winds to around 15 knots and seas up to
3 feet expected late Sunday and Monday. The gradient further
tightens between Tropical Depression Nine east of Florida and high
pressure to the north for Tuesday through Thursday with cautionary
winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
No fire weather concerns expected through the weekend as relative
humidity values remain above critical levels and winds remain below
15 mph. Scattered showers and isolated storms possible each day
through the weekend, then lower rain chances expected next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  76  90 /  10  40  10  20
FMY  76  91  74  90 /  20  50  10  20
GIF  74  91  74  89 /  30  60  20  30
SRQ  74  91  74  89 /  10  40  10  20
BKV  70  91  71  89 /  10  40  10  30
SPG  77  89  76  88 /  10  40  10  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion