Brethren, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

547
FXUS63 KAPX 072021
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
421 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy/areas of frost tonight, focusing across the interior
  south of M-72.
- Temps rebound much of this week; showers possible Tuesday for
  some.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Trough axis shifts to the east tonight with precipitation
chances waning. Sfc high pressure builds in from the northwest,
the center focusing down state just south of northern MI. Thus,
winds become calm tonight with mostly clear skies and
radiational cooling attempting to aid in temperatures dropping
to the frost point across the interior. Sfc high pressure
slides to the east some on Monday with southwesterly flow
leading to temperatures ~8 to 10 degrees warmer most areas.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Frost Potential:
Only concern through the period will be the potential for cool
temperatures/frost formation tonight. Couple of competing
factors I think, one being low level moisture really never
scours out. Thus, cooling could certainly be stifled by fog
formation/low level saturation (patchy fog possible for
typical/stubborn locales). That being said, when looking at some
pieces of guidance/probs (NBM, internal probs) and the
positioning of the high pressure system tonight, there could be
a pocket of ~32-36F temps Crawford county southward. Even last
night couple of locations dropped to 34-36 degrees, so tonight
~32-36 should not be out of the question, at least for a brief
period. Thus, will have a frost advisory for portions of the
interior (Kalk, Craw, Osc southward).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Day 2-3 (Tuesday - Wednesday):
Corridor of warm and moist advection sets up across the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday, although each subsequent model guidance run
seems to try and shove this corridor of moisture and
precipitation potential farther and farther northwest. Thus,
shower and isolated thunderstorm potential does exist, the best
potential will be across eastern upper. Where this most
efficient corridor of precipitation sets up will likely see
moderate rainfall (as is showing up in the model guidance). At
this time this is not expected to be across the NWS Gaylord
county warning area, instead shifted to the northwest. Showers
potential may leak into portions of northwest lower MI as well.
Days 4-7 (Thursday - Sunday):
Upper level heights rise through the end of the period, although
sfc frontal boundary settles beneath these heights aloft
Thursday and Friday. Thus, the end of the week will be slightly
cooler for northeast lower, but trends appear to favor a lesser
magnitude of cooling with this feature (high pressure off to
the northeast a little more). By the weekend temperatures begin
to increase again with mid 70s to near 80 degrees for some.
Too much uncertainty to discern any precipitation potential
later in the period but later Friday into Saturday there`s at
least a hint of that potential.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the
period. Scattered lake effect showers continue into this
evening, with brief MVFR cigs possible. Activity diminishes
overnight with skies becoming mostly clear. Light winds
overnight will turn southwest on Monday, increasing to around 10
kts with occasional higher gusts. VFR conditions will continue
into Monday with dry conditions and perhaps some patchy fog
early in the morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for MIZ027>029-
     032>035-041.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion