Briscoe, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

014
FXUS64 KAMA 201748
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A marginal (5%) chance for severe thunderstorms exists this
evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorm chances remain on the lower side next week, but are
possible Monday through Thursday. Uncertainties remain concerning
next week`s upper level system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Slightly above normal temperatures are progged for the combined
Panhandles this afternoon under the eastern periphery of an upper
level high. Later today into tonight a shortwave trough is progged
to traverse combined Panhandles increasing PoPs to around 30 percent
in the afternoon increasing to 40 to 50 overnight in the eastern
Panhandles. PWATs around 100 to 120 percent of normal are expected
suggesting adequate moisture for showers and thunderstorms. A modest
700 to 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE is suggested between model guidance along
with bulk shear around 20 to 25 knots this afternoon into evening.
So will be on the look out for some individual storms to become
severe with the main threat being hail up to the size of quarters
and 60 mph wind gusts.
Most of the thunderstorm activity across the eastern Panhandles
should be wrapped up by midnight tonight. However, some lingering
shower activity may still be present in the eastern Panhandles well
into sunrise.
Tomorrow, the warm temperatures are expected to continue with highs
in the lower to mid 80s in the north to mid 80s to lower 90s in the
southern FA. H7 negative theta-e advection tomorrow and a lack of an
upper level shortwave have tomorrow looking dry and free from
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Monday, the upper level ridge over the area
strengthens a bit with temperatures reaching the upper 80s in the
north to 90s in the south. PDC is expected to reach the upper 90s
stopping short of 100 degrees. At the same time a positively tilted
upper level trough is progged to swing down the Great Plains into
the Mississippi River Valley bringing cooler temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday along with precipitation chances Monday night into
Wednesday. With this system bringing some cooler temperatures
afternoon highs on Tuesday are progged to be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Considering the high for Amarillo is expected to be 92 on
Monday and 79 on Tuesday, this will be a noticeable difference.
Wednesday should be another cool day in the 70s before ridging
builds back in bringing back the warmer summer like temperatures.
Especially going into into next weekend as the Southern Great Plains
sees high pressure sandwiched between two upper level highs, one
over the Desert Southwest and one over the southeastern US.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Mostly VFR conditions expected with light winds less than 5 kts.
However, there will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
to potentially change that. Mainly for KGUY and possibly KDHT
after 00Z. KAMA still has a chance to be impacted, however,
confidence is low enough to leave out of the TAFs at this time.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion