Brownfield, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

216
FXUS64 KLUB 210515
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Isolated to scattered storms may linger through the afternoon,
  primarily off the Caprock.
- Much warmer this afternoon and Monday with record breaking heat
  possible.
- An upper level system to bring cooler and wetter conditions to
  the region Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the upper level shortwave
spiraling over central Oklahoma, with little perturbations
translating on the back end of the shortwave. This has lead to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the
northern Texas Panhandle and with northwest flow aloft present
across the region we can expect these storms to inch closer to the
FA through the early morning hours. The presence of the nocturnal
LLJ will help these storms grow upscale through the early morning
hours, which could lead to precipitation lingering overnight.
Much of the precipitation will be fixated across areas off the
Caprock and primarily, the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and
eastern Rolling Plains closer to the shortwave. Dewpoints across
this area have been analyzed in the mid to upper 60s early this
morning, which combined with the lift present with this system,
and PWATs well above the 90th percentile normal may lead to the
potential for heavy rainfall overnight which could lead to
localized areas of flooding concerns across low lying/poor
drainage areas. A secondary shortwave will pass through the TX/OK
Panhandles around daybreak, as moisture remains persistent across
the area we can expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Sunday afternoon across the
Caprock. Areas across the Caprock today can expect a much drier
forecast as the upper level ridge shifts eastward in response to a
shortwave trough entering the Baja California region.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be much warmer, in
response to the building ridge influencing height and thickness
increases across the region. In addition to the southwesterly
component to the surface winds thanks to a lee side low set up to
our north. However, areas off the Caprock could potentially see
highs a few degrees cooler from NBM (mid to upper 90s) if we see
showers and thunderstorms linger with associated cloud cover
limiting diurnal heating. Due to the confidence in this being
quite low, will opt to stick with NBM temperatures area-wide in
the lower to upper 90s. Compared to previous nights, much quieter
and drier weather conditions are expected with warm overnight lows
in the 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Models are in a bit better agreement with the evolution of the upper
level pattern this week compared to what we saw this time yesterday.
By the start of the extended the FA will find itself beneath an
weakening upper level ridge Monday before the ridge deamplifies in
response to an upper level shortwave trough translating through the
Intermountain West. Despite the weakening ridge, height values will
remain neutral while thickness values increase subtly. As a result,
the hottest day of the week is expected Monday with unseasonably hot
temperatures. Southwest surface winds combined with subsidence aloft
will work to influence highs in the mid 90s to lower triple digits
across the FA. Daytime highs may even break previous records at KLBB
(98 degrees in 1977) and KCDS (101 degrees in 1977) with highs
currently forecast at 99 degrees at KLBB and 97 degrees at KCDS.
The synoptic pattern begins to change Tuesday as the H5 shortwave
trough becomes positively tilted through mid-week as it extends
from the western Central Plains into portions of the Upper
Midwest. Models still differ a bit on where the center of the
trough sets up, with the GFS the outlier keeping the center of the
trough further north compared to models like the ECMWF and
Canadian. Therefore, models like the Canadian and ECMWF are
portraying a slightly wetter scenario compared to the GFS with the
FA within the right exit region of the H5 jet streak moving
overhead. Looking at FROPA timing, models are also still not quite
in tune with the timing at this point in time either with the
FROPA looking to be a bit slower compared to earlier model runs.
Nonetheless, daytime highs Tuesday will be dependent on the timing
of this front and due to the run to run difference will opt to
keep NBM daytime highs which continue to depict a large gradient
oriented from the southwest to northeast, with cooler highs to the
west of the gradient and warmer highs to the east of the gradient
as post frontal northerly winds advect cold air in from the
north. Not only will temperatures be dependent on this front, but
so will precipitation, with the frontal boundary looking to be the
primary source of lift Tuesday afternoon. As this front surges
southward, moisture associated with this upper level system should
be enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the boundary. Headed into the middle of the week, the H5 jet
streak looks to inch closer which will allow for additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue Wednesday and
Thursday. However, another major unknown with this system is in
regards to moisture associated with this system. With moisture
return being dependent on how this system evolves and sets up. As
of now, not seeing too much moisture to play with which could
limit overall precipitation potential but will need to be analyzed
further with new model runs that come in over the next few days.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side Wednesday and Thursday
with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately the
warming trend returns by Friday as an upper level ridge amplifies
across the Desert Southwest and shifts eastward in response to
another shortwave trough translating into the Four Corners region.
As a result, thickness and height values will begin to increase
which in combination with southerly winds will help highs warm back
into the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s. Ensembles continue to hint
at additional chances for rainfall returning by next weekend as the
trough over the Desert Southwest creeps into the region. Will go
ahead and run with the NBM mentionable PoPs at this time, given
models differ greatly with this system being several days out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR with a few TS passing withing 30 miles or so of CDS for a few
more hours. SW winds (occasionally breezy) will overspread LBB
and PVW by mid morning behind a dryline that stalls near CDS
during the afternoon. Not impossible for a few TS to develop
anywhere along the dryline Sunday afternoon, but this is too
conditional for an explicit mention in the TAF.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion