Brush Fork, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

117
FXUS61 KRNK 160630
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
230 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low may bring an opportunity for light rain through
this evening. Dry conditions return for the latter half of the
week, with another increase in rain chances over the weekend and
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Clouds persisting with increasing rainfall chances today,
especially for the Piedmont.
In the upper levels, a closed low was lingering over the Mid
Atlantic this morning. At the surface, low pressure was
retrograding from the coast towards inland VA/NC. Moisture and
lift provided by these features will bring light rain showers to
areas mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge through tomorrow
morning. QPF amounts look light, but expect gloomy and cloudy
skies over the region today and tonight, with highs in the 60s
and 70s, and lows tonight in the 50s areawide.
Confidence in the near term is high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Points:
1. Lingering isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday,
especially for eastern areas.
2. Dry Thursday and Friday.
3. Trending milder through the period with values five to ten
degrees above normal by Friday.
A look at the 15 Sep 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Wednesday/Wednesday night a shortwave trough
will extend from New England to VA. Another shortwave trough
is expected to extend from ND to CO. Finally, a third trough
will be approaching the Pacific NW from the west. On
Thursday/Thursday night, the trough over the east coast flattens
while a deeper low heads southeast across Quebec. The trough
across north-central CONUS amplifies slightly. The trough
approaching the Pacific NW reaches the coast. For Friday/Friday
night, The low crossing Quebec deepens even more as it starts to
cover much of far eastern Canada, with its trough extending
into area of ME and Nova Scotia. The trough over north- central
CONUS holds nearly stationary. The trough over the West Coast
shows limited eastward progression, but the potentially forming
a closed low off the CA coast.
At the surface, for Wednesday/Wednesday night low pressure will
be near the coasts of VA/NC heading slowly north or northeast.
A more robust low will be situated over Quebec with its trough
axis extending southwest into the western Great Lakes region.
High pressure will be nosing south from Manitoba southwest into
the area of the Rockies. For Thursday/Thursday night, a
trough/low expected to be situated southeast of New England. A
stronger low will be heading east through Quebec with an
associated trough extending to near NY. A high pressure ridge
will cover much of north-central CONUS. For Friday/Friday night,
a trailing trough will be along the East Coast of the US with
its parent low across far eastern Canada. The center of high
pressure will move east to over the Great Lakes with an ridge
axis extending south into the Ohio Valley.
A look at the 15 Sep 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Wednesday around +14C for
the region. Values inch higher to around +15C to +16C on
Thursday. For Friday, values again are slightly higher, closer
to +17C for the area. For much of the area on Friday, these
values correspond to the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year
CFSR climatology.
The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Our
weather for Wednesday will still be influenced by a slow moving
area of low pressure near or just north of the VA/NC border
near the coast. However, as this low continues its northeast
journey, we should see showers gradually dissipate Wednesday
night from southwest to northeast. For Thursday and Friday, our
weather turns dry again as high pressure builds over the area in
advance of a developing trough of low pressure over central
CONUS. Temperatures will trend milder through the period with
values averaging five to ten degrees above normal by Friday.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Generally dry through the period.
2. Temperatures trending cooler through the weekend.
A look a the 15 Sep 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday/Saturday night that ridging takes
place over our region as the eastern Canadian low pivots
northeast. A the north-central CONUS trough may make a slight
movement eastward. For Sunday/Sunday night, a general area of
ridging remains over the area, but we may start to be on the
western side of the ridge axis. The trough in the center of the
country makes some headway east, reaching the mid-Mississippi
and Lower Ohio Valleys. For Sunday/Sunday night, little eastward
movement is expected for the central US trough, but it may
amplify slightly. On Monday, little change is expected in the
overall synoptic pattern as compared to Sunday.
At the surface, for Saturday/Saturday night, the center of a
broad region of high pressure will be centered over New
England. An associated ridge axis is expected to extend south
along the lee of the Appalachians. For Sunday/Sunday night, the
center of the surface high is expected to move east into the
western Atlantic, southeast of the Canadian Maritimes. However,
it associated ridge axis still is expected to situated over the
lee of the Appalachians. For Monday, little change is expected
for our general region. The lee side ridge is still expected to
be in place. An area of general troughiness is expected across
central CONUS.
A look at the 15 Aug 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Saturday cool a bit as
compared to Friday. Look for readings of +15C to +16C. On
Sunday, values dip to around +14C. On Monday, values inch
slightly higher to around +15C.
The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Little
no no rain is expected through this portion of the forecast
thanks to the influence of a ridge of high pressure centered
over eastern parts of the area. A dry backdoor cold front may
cross the region Saturday into Sunday. Hit or missing isolated
showers may be associated with the front over the weekend.
Temperatures will trend cooler through Sunday to values around
normal for this time of year. Temperatures may inch slightly
higher on Monday as the backdoor cold front washes out.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...
Rain showers and lower cloud layers are to the east this
morning, but will trend toward MVFR/low VFR for much of the day
today. Light showers are possible especially east of the Blue
Ridge through this evening. Otherwise, expect mid clouds in the
FL040 to FL060 range.
Winds will generally remain out of the NNE with gusts exceeding
15 kts at times this afternoon east of the Blue Ridge before
becoming light and variable tonight.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Rain and clouds will linger through Wednesday, associated with
low pressure slowly moving northward along the coast. This could
bring periods of sub-VFR, mainly east of the mountains.
Drier and sunnier weather returns again for Thursday and Friday,
but the chance for showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
returns for the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion