Calvin, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

794
FXUS62 KGSP 080546
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry surface high pressure ridge will linger over the region
through most of the week.  This will bring fair weather and below
normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1244 AM EDT Monday: All quiet across the forecast area
tonight as surface high pressure centered over the upper Ohio
Valley continues to filter into the Carolinas, ridging down the east
coast and driving continued NNE winds.  Scattered stratocu over the
Upstate have mostly dissipated, much as the HREF predicted earlier
this evening, and so the bulk of the forecast area is now clear.
Still seeing some valley stratocu in the Little Tennessee Valley
and parts of the French Broad...which may continue through much
of the night.  Lows will drop into the 50s everywhere, and may
even hit the upper 40s at the highest elevations of the Blue Ridge.
By day, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected, with highs in
the mid 70s across the low terrain.  A steady northeast wind will
continue throughout the day, then weaken going into the evening and
Monday night.  Lows Monday night will fall into the low- to mid-50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 am EDT Monday: The surface pattern over the East during
the short term will be largely influenced by upper confluent flow
over the northeast Conus and southeast Canada, and a cyclone lifting
northeast near the Gulf Stream. Resultant inverted surface pressure
ridge and thermal/moisture trough will result in a continuation
of unseasonably cool and dry conditions across our area through
the period. Nevertheless, with confluent flow steadily weakening to
our northeast, so will the the surface ridge steadily weaken and the
air mass modify. Thus, while temps will begin the period around 10
degrees below climo, with Tue afternoon dewpoints generally in the
40s, dewpoints and max temps are expected to increase by around 5
degrees Wed afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 am EDT Monday: The axis of an upper trough is forecast to
progress steadily across the East through late in the week, with
inverted surface ridging expected to strengthen a bit in its wake
next weekend. As such, air mass modification early in the period
will be somewhat disrupted over the weekend...with temps warming
to near normal Thu/Fri before cooling slightly Sat/Sun. Otherwise,
conditions will remain too dry/stable to support precip chances
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected through the period at
all TAF sites.  FEW/SCT skies expected overnight (with an outside
chance of MVFR stratus developing at KAVL this morning, but too
little confidence to include in the TAF) and a steady NE wind
(NNW at KAVL).  FEW/SKC expected on Monday, with some potential
for low-end gusts in the afternoon.
Outlook: VFR and dry through much of next week. Fog and/or low
stratus is possible each morning, especially in the mountain
valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MPR

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion