Caney, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

379
FXUS63 KICT 221848
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
148 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe storms possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.
  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats
  alongside locally heavy rain.
- Rain chances end from west to east on Wednesday.
- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions Thursday through
  Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon
indicate strong zonal flow aloft across the Rockies and Central
Plains ahead of a mid/upper wave. Though surface-based CAPE sits
around 1000-2000 J/kg across the forecast area, a stout cap at 850
mb is expected to hold through the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening, which should preclude chances for showers and storms
today given weak/no forcing at the surface.
PRECIPITATION:
The upper wave is expected to translate eastward through today into
the overnight hours. Out ahead of this feature, a surface low is
progged to develop in the High Plains later this evening. As both
of these track east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop and enter the area after 05Z amid steep mid-level lapse
rates and stout deep-layer shear. Given these factors, large hail
and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms
primarily after 07Z. Additionally, given the lapse rates and progged
PWATs around 150-200% of normal for this time of year, very
efficient rainfall is possible with this activity. 12Z models
today indicate this system will likely be progressive in nature,
but HREF probabilities for rainfall greater than 1 inch
continue to be relatively high (60%-80%) across the area. As
probabilities for greater than 2 inches carry reasonably high
confidence (40%-60%) and given moist soils from recent rains, it
was decided to issue a Flood Watch for the forecast area
beginning tonight and lasting until early Tuesday afternoon.
Rain chances will linger through Wednesday afternoon as the
system slowly tracks off toward the Lower Mississippi River
Valley.
Following the passage of this latest storm complex, dry and quiet
weather is expected to prevail through the end of the week with the
return of northwest flow aloft.
TEMPERATURES:
Cloud cover from showers and storms will inhibit surface insolation
Tuesday and Wednesday, thereby keeping high temperatures in the low
to middle 70s areawide. As the mid-level ridge slowly shifts
eastward toward the Central Plains, high temperatures to close out
the week are expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Main aviation concern will be overnight into Tue morning storms.
Fog finally started to lift a couple hours ago with some pockets
of IFR cigs lingering around for another hour. Storms are still
expected to move-in to the forecast area generally after 06z
tonight. They should affect KRSL-KGBD around 07z and KHUT-KICT
in the 08-09z range. Heavy rain and hail will be possible with
the stronger storms. Storms should be fairly progressive and be
out of most TAF sites by 15z, with the exception of KCNU, where
they could linger a couple more hours.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion