Carlsbad, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

138
FXUS64 KSJT 220511 CCB
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs at or above 100
  degrees anticipated in some of the Big Country and Concho
  Valley.
- Cold front arrival Tuesday night and early Wednesday will bring
  an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms, and followed
  by cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Hot and fairly humid air over the region with dew points into the
upper 60s throughout the CWA. CAMs continue to indicate shortwave
moving through the WNW flow aloft with storms popping up in the
21-22Z time frame, mainly north of I-20. SPC has upgraded this
area to a slight risk and this looks reasonable with plenty of
shear and modest instability. There is some warm air aloft, but
looking at forecast soundings, the warming combined with the high
dew points will overcome this, at least over areas mentioned.
Skies will clear tonight and winds decreasing, especially across
the south. May see some patchy fog develop in some lower valleys,
but kept out of the forecast for now. Drier air moves in for
Monday with dew points dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s
with some lower to mid 50s out west. This will lead to
temperatures warming up towards 100 degrees, but the heat will be
short lived as a nice cool down is expected in the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Our area will have one more hot day Tuesday, with south-southwest
winds and 850mb thermal ridging ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highs are expected to be in the upper 90s to 101 across the Big
Country and Concho Valley, and in mostly in the mid 90s farther
south. The record highs Tuesday (Sep. 23) are 101 in Abilene, and
103 in San Angelo, with both records set in 2023.
An upper trough will move from Colorado Tuesday morning into Kansas/
Oklahoma Tuesday night. There remain some model differences, but
the overall expectation at this time is for the associated cold
front to move south into the northern Big Country Tuesday evening,
and across the rest of our area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. This will bring an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms to our area. Seeing some indications of moisture
pooling along the front with precipitable water values increasing
to between 1.5 and 2 inches. This will bring a possibility for
some locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler with increased cloud cover
in the post-frontal airmass. Highs are expected to be in the lower
to mid 80s. Weak surface high pressure will settle southeast into
the area by Thursday with drier air filtering in as well. Wednesday
night and Thursday night will be relatively pleasant with light
winds, radiational cooling, and overnight lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Could have even cooler lows in some favored low-lying
areas.
Dry but warmer conditions are indicated Friday into the weekend,
as a shortwave upper ridge traverses Texas. Highs during that time
should be mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A few hours of
MVFR are possible at the KJCT terminal Monday morning. South winds
will be a little gusty Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  74 100  76 /  30  20  10   0
San Angelo  95  71  98  71 /  30  20   0   0
Junction    93  69  96  70 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   96  70  97  71 /  30  20   0   0
Sweetwater  97  72 101  74 /  30  20  10  10
Ozona       93  69  95  70 /  20  10   0   0
Brady       93  70  95  71 /  10  20   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion