Carlton, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

247
FXUS65 KPUB 171759
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1159 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An incoming system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
  area today, with some strong to severe expected.
- Moisture begins to dwindle on Thursday with another day of
  cooler temperatures.
- Warmer and drier from Friday through the weekend into early
  next week, with just some very isolated afternoon
  thunderstorms possible over the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Today and Tonight...
Upper-level trough will continue moving through our region today,
bringing another round of cooler and relatively active weather.
Initially, leftover cloud cover from yesterday`s convection will
keep things largely cool and stable across the area. That being
said, easterly upslope will set in by mid-afternoon. With strong
westerly winds aloft and ample low-level moisture, another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to form, mainly along the
mountains/plains interface. Storms will generally move east-
southeast, following the steering flow from the main trough axis
overhead. Looking at severe parameters, modest instability and 30+
knots of bulk shear indicate a good chance for some strong to severe
storms. The entirety of the eastern plains is under a marginal
outlook, with some areas along and south of Highway 50 under a
slight, where the highest CAPE values are in the models at 1500 J/kg
or more. Models have also trended down throughout the last 12 hours
in regards to morning cloud cover. In all, some enhanced daytime
heating, combined with sufficient CAPE and robust shear profiles,
could make for some interesting afternoon thunderstorms.
More likely than not, storm formation will be mostly limited to
elevated heating surfaces (the mountains, Palmer Divide, and Raton
Mesa), as well as along any outflow boundaries later in the day. The
shear in place may keep storms moving, and the longer-lasting cells
may be able to travel southeast and take advantage of the better air
to intensify. Stronger storms over the plains could produce some
strong outflow, hail to 1 inch, and briefly heavy rain. Over the
southeast plains, where the best environment will be, intensified
storms could produce stronger outflow winds and large hail.
Additionally, given the shear profiles, an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.
Finally, temperatures will be noticeably cooler than yesterday.
While high temperatures in some places will be dependent on cloud
cover, we will generally be seeing 70s to low-80s over most of the
forecast area.
Thursday...
Upper trough moves east on Thursday, leaving breezy northwest flow
aloft. Still seeing enough lingering moisture at the low to mid-
levels for another round of afternoon showers and storms. However,
shear in the afternoon will be a bit lower with a less supportive
vertical profile. This, along with slowly decreasing instability,
will mean that any convection on Thursday will generally be weak to
moderate at best. Latest guidance shows some scattered afternoon
coverage, mainly tied to the Palmer and Raton areas. Temperatures
will be cooler still thanks to the passing system, falling just a
bit below seasonal averages. Expect highs in the high-60s to mid-70s
across most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Upper low departs and ridge builds on Friday, with warmer
temperatures and only some isolated/weak convection over the
higher terrain along the NM border. Main change to Friday`s
forecast was to nudge max temps upward a few degf at many
locations, as NBM looked too cool given warmer more recent 00z
statistical guidance. Upper ridge flattens a bit over the
weekend, allowing leftover mid-level sub-tropical moisture to
drift into the state, which will in turn drive an increase in
mountain convection both Sat/Sun. Storm intensity/coverage
look weak/isolated through the period, with mainly lighting,
wind and light rain/sprinkles with most activity.
Ridge rebuilds over Rockies early next week, keeping warm
weather in place while moisture and thunderstorm chances
decrease. Some potential for a cold front by mid-week as short
wave energy crests the ridge and dives into the central U.S.,
though model spread on details/timing are rather large at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Active first half of the period anticipated mainly over COS and
PUB, beginning this afternoon and lasting into the evening. The
main concern will be thunderstorm development, especially
across COS. Relatively quiet at this time though, with light
winds and VFR conditions in place. This will continue for ALS
today and into tomorrow, as precip and ceiling development
likely to remain over the plains.
Will see shower and thunderstorm development occur over the
higher terrain by early afternoon, then begin spilling into the
I-25 corridor by the mid afternoon time frame. This will impact
COS first and did go ahead and speed up the timing of this
shower/thunderstorm development. Given a higher likelihood of
occurrence at COS, did adjust the TAF, adding a TEMPO group this
afternoon. Could see the need to indicate higher confidence,
possibly adding more prevailing conditions later. For PUB, did
not make any changes to the PROB30 group given some uncertainty
with timing and how this precip may evolve later today into the
evening in this location. Do feel that shower and thunderstorm
will remain possible, but didn`t have confidence to make any
changes at this time. Lastly, kept precip in the TAFs through
this evening, but it`s possible that precip may continue well
into the overnight hours. Confidence on this is low at this
time, and so have opted to add any additional rain or thunder
mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion