Carson, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

501
FXUS64 KMOB 201107
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
607 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Now through Thursday...
An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the
weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the
Southeast in the coming week. Weak ridging developing between the
troughs will help a surface ridge develop over the Appalachians over
the weekend, which then builds southwest over the Southeast.
Southeast to southerly flow will move Gulf moisture inland west of
the forecast area in the coming week, which then shifts east over
the forecast area. PoPs increase from the west into the middle of
the coming week in response. Until then, pools of increased moisture
(precipitable h20 water values around 1.5" or a bit higher) working
with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon
convection to form over the Southeast. For Saturday and Sunday,
guidance is advertising moisture levels high enough for isolated
to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the
forecast area. This is more in line with the CAMS, with other
guidance advertising dry conditions.
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the forecast. High
temperatures in the 90-95 degree range (upper 80s along the coast)
are expected through the weekend, with a bit of a downward trend in
the coming week as rain chances see an uptick. Low temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s over the forecast area are expected through
the forecast.
Weak, diurnally driven flow and decreasing tidal cycle will keep the
risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend into the coming week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with a light
and variable wind becoming southerly during the afternoon. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the
late afternoon into early evening. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  70  92  69  90  69  90  70 /  30   0  20   0  10   0  20  20
Pensacola   92  74  89  73  89  72  88  73 /  20   0  10   0  10   0  10  10
Destin      89  75  87  73  87  74  88  75 /  10   0  10   0  10   0  10  10
Evergreen   96  67  94  66  93  66  95  67 /  20   0  20   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  94  68  93  66  91  66  93  69 /  20  10  20  10  10   0  20  20
Camden      94  69  93  67  92  66  93  69 /  20   0  20  10   0   0  10  10
Crestview   95  67  92  67  92  66  93  68 /  20   0  20   0  10   0  10  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion