Cave Spring, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

374
FXUS63 KLMK 212003
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
403 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. With
   additional showers and storms developing in the early morning
   hours tomorrow. Some storms could be strong to possibly severe.
   Gusty winds, hail, lightning and brief heavy rainfall are
   possible.
*  Another chance of strong to severe storms are possible Monday
   afternoon and evening. Main impacts remain gusty winds, hail, and
   brief heavy rainfall.
*  Active and unsettled weather patter sets up over the area for
   next week. Daily chances of showers and storms with some our
   heaviest rainfall occurring on Wednesday.
*  Multi day rainfall amounts from Sunday night to Friday afternoon
   will range between 3 to 4 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Atmosphere has started to recover from the earlier round of showers
and thunderstorms from the morning. Low-level lapse rapes have begun
to steepen while mid-level lapse rates remain weak. A linear cluster
of showers/storms stretch from Henderson, KY southeast towards
Franklin, KY.  These showers have been firing along a weak sfc
trough with a little help from a weak LLJ over the area. These
storms have had history of producing gusty winds of 30-35 mph. Hi-
res models have had a hard time picking up on the development but
did notice it picked up on this boundary. Should see the activity in
the Louisville area close to 630pm and near Lexington around 830pm
if they managed to hold together as they move to the northeast. We
remain in a marginal risk for severe weather through the afternoon
and overnight.
Once this wave moves through later this evening, models indicate we
could see a bit of a lull in the activity, but still want to keep an
isolated to scattered chance of a possible shower/storm. LLJ is
expected to increase during the early morning hours over the area
just before sunrise, out ahead of the approaching upper trough axis.
Shower/storm chances start to increase during this time, with higher
morning chances along and north of the Ohio River. Trough axis
arrives and works across the CWA during the day tomorrow. A large
swath of showers and storms look to develop near and north of the
Ohio River with more scattered showers and storms the further south
you go. SPC has the CWA once again in a Marginal Outlook for severe
weather (1 out of 5). Moderate instability will be in place during
the afternoon and evening as the trough axis moves through. Like
today, mid-level lapse rates will remain low but effective shear
looks to range between 20-30kts, allowing for better organization of
any convection that develops tomorrow afternoon. Main threat will be
strong gusty winds, lightning with some possible hail.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Weather through the long term looks to be active and unsettled as a
series of disturbances will work through the Ohio Valley. We may get
a brief break on Tuesday as the trough axis from Monday will works
off to our south and east by Tuesday afternoon. An upper low looks
to take shape over the Central Plains on Tuesday and then develop a
sfc low over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. while the deterministic
models agree on the development of the sfc low, they still differ on
timing and location. Either way weather will remain unsettled and
wet as we go through the middle and end of the week. Sfc low will
slowly work over the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes
during the day Thursday before weakening and lifting off to the
northeast. Closed low looks to open up into a trough lingering over
the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday.
Much needed rain is expected to fall during this time with total
rainfall amounts from Sunday night to Friday afternoon ranging from
3 to 4 inches. WPC does have central KY and southern IN in a slight
risk for excessive rainfall on Wednesday as the sfc low deepens and
works to our north. Thankfully all of this rainfall is spread out
over the long term and should bring some relief to current drought
conditions.
Temperatures will also be turning colder through the long term,
starting out near normal around the low/mid 80s on Tuesday then
falling into the mid 70s through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
After a morning wave of showers and thunderstorms, we are
experiencing a bit of a lull for our terminal sites. Radar mosaics
around the region shows an area of showers/storms coming together
over western KY, southern KY. If it comes together we could see
another round later this afternoon between 21-23z from HNB, BWG,
SDF. Forecast remains challenging as hi-res guidance is having a
difficult time keying on the current activity. Confidence is not
extremely high maybe around 30 to 40 percent with the possibility
some sites may need to be amended through the afternoon and early
evening for possible shower/storm development. Winds will remain S-
SSW around 10kts.
Confidence does grow overnight into tomorrow morning of the LLJ
strengthening over the region, especially along the Ohio River.
Increasing the chance of additional showers/storms around 10z or
right before sunrise. Shower chances increase along with
thunderstorms for the day tomorrow. CIGs seem to remain VFR, but
heavy rain could reduce VIS to MVFR or IFR during a strong shower
or storm.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion