Centenary, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

041
FXUS62 KILM 171718
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
118 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will develop into the weekend as high
pressure builds in. Temperatures return to near normal Sunday
into next week with low rain chances each day associated with a
coastal trough.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure over southeastern VA will continue to weaken and
lift to the north and east overnight. High pressure will build
behind the surface low into Thursday. Expect mostly clear skies
tonight with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Warmer on Thursday with full sunshine in a slightly warmer air
mass. While skies should generally be clear outside of afternoon
cumulus, a weak shortwave moving southward around the upper low
on Wednesday will become detached from the steering flow aloft.
This piece of energy will remain generally stationary on
Thursday, but will provide some localized lift and additional
cloud cover for central and western SC. While this will largely
remain west of the area, a few cumulus clouds could feed on this
additional lift and produce an isolated sprinkle. Measurable
precip should be difficult to attain in such a dry air mass, so
I have capped PoPs at 14% with the afternoon forecast package.
Similarly, an afternoon sea breeze could enhance existing
cumulus near the coast. Convergence along the mesoscale boundary
may advect enough low level moisture to produce a quick
sprinkle or two, but the antecedent air mass looks too dry to
maintain a mention of measurable precip.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm weather will close out the work week with fairly
weak pressure pattern in place, both at the surface and aloft.
Plenty of sunshine Friday with highs near 90F away from the
beaches, roughly 5 degrees above climo, which should kick off a
nice, dry sea breeze. With no wind and clear skies, may see some
patchy fog develop both Thursday and Friday nights, but with
dry air not too far from the surface and dry grounds not
expecting widespread development.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure begins to build down from the north
Saturday and lingers through early next week. A coastal trough
develops off the Southeast coast late Sunday, lingering through
Tuesday. Forecast has increased clouds and low rain chances
early next week as trough approaches the coast and PWATs rise,
but confidence is low with regards to when/if it will rain and
how much. Deterministic GFS is an outlier with decent PVA moving
in from the south Monday-Tuesday ahead of a closed upper low
moving across the central US, which could lead to higher QPF,
but would like to see more consistency. Above normal high temps
Saturday lower to near normal for Sunday into early next week,
while low temps remain above normal due to cloud coverage..
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR with some uncertainty in the potential for ground
fog late tonight. Due to a dry boundary layer, chances for
restrictions are low, but isolated ground fog could bring brief
restrictions before sunrise at ILM/LBT (CRE may also see a brief
restriction due to nearby water bodies). Expect light and
variable winds late tonight and into Thursday with an afternoon
sea breeze bringing some periodic E gusts to 15-20 knots.
Extended Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop near the coast Sunday into Monday, but confidence is
low. There is also a chance of fog Friday and Saturday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Southwest winds weaken tonight as low
pressure over southeastern VA lifts off to the north and east.
High pressure will settle into the region on Thursday with light
and variable winds. Warmer temperatures on land will lead to
the development of an afternoon sea breeze. Southerly winds near
the coast could gust up to 15 knots at times during the
afternoon.
Thursday Night through Monday...Benign marine conditions in
store through end of the workweek with winds around 10 kts or
less and seas 1-2 ft due to weak pressure pattern at the
surface. High pressure wedge develops inland Saturday, lingering
into early next week. This will turn winds northeasterly
starting Saturday, aided by a coastal trough developing off
Southeast coast and possibly moving towards local coastline
early next week. Current forecast has wind speeds 15-20 kts
Saturday night through Monday, with gusts near 25 kts Sunday.
Seas increase during the day Saturday as ENE swell builds,
peaking around 4-5 ft Sunday with 6 footers possible, slightly
lowering to 3-4 ft Monday. Scattered showers will be possible
starting Sunday due to coastal trough, though confidence is low
with regards to coverage and thunder chances.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...VAO/21

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion