338 FXUS64 KFWD 072333 AFDFWDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler weather will continue through Tuesday before above normal temperatures return the latter half of the week.
- No precipitation is expected through the next 7 days.
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.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025/ /Through Monday/
The upper level pattern across the CONUS is currently split between a trough near the Eastern Seaboard and a ridge over the Rockies, with North and Central Texas lying in the middle. The resulting northwest flow aloft (along with a surface front down along the Gulf Coast) will provide dry and pleasant weather to most of the region for the next few days. One possible exception is southern portions of Central Texas, where a weak disturbance aloft may generate a few elevated showers or storms later today, with rain chances generally 20 percent or less.
Otherwise, low clouds will gradually transition to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs in the 80s. Clouds are thicker and more widespread than advertised by the NBM, making a slight downward adjustment necessary for afternoon highs. Additional low cloud and fog development will be less likely tonight as drier air spreads in from the northeast, though patchy fog may still occur near the Red River Valley and in Central Texas.
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.LONG TERM... /Issued 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025/ /Monday Night Onward/
A slow eastward shift in the upper level pattern will bring the Rockies ridge overhead by midweek. The ridge will then remain planted over Texas and the Southern Plains for several days, bringing a return to summer-like temperatures midweek through next weekend. Highs will increase from the 80s early this week to the low and mid 90s starting Wednesday, but somewhat dry conditions will still allow low temperatures to drop into the 60s each night. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge will shut down any convective attempts, keeping rain chances less than 10 percent through the end of the forecast period.
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.AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
VFR conditions are generally expected to persist through the 08/00Z TAF period with no significant concerns for aviation interests. Sky cover will consist of SCT/BKN altocumulus based near 4-6 kft for a few more hours, in addition to some passing cirrus as drier air has been slow to spread through the region. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue to veer to the southeast overnight tonight with speeds generally remaining around 5-8 kts.
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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 85 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 64 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 58 81 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 60 84 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 60 83 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 65 85 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 60 83 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 63 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 65 86 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 60 86 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
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.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion