Cherryfield, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

673
FXUS61 KCAR 161817
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
217 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slide south of the region
through Wednesday. A cold front will approach Thursday and cross
the region Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will build
in from the west later Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern through
Wednesday night. Fog will continue to be an issue in river
valleys tonight. On Wednesday, we start to see the influence of
return flow around the high. This will bring warmer temperatures
and on Wednesday, the warmest highs will actually be further
inland, where the air has warmed but is not under the influnce
of the marine layer. Wednesday night, the southerly flow will
change the character of potential fog to more advection based
fog associated with the marine layer, versus the river valley
fog seen across the north the previous nights. Increasing upper
level clouds will also limit radation fog, and overall fog will
be less widespread than it has been.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Thursday, high pressure slides to the east while a weak cold
front approaches from the west. Highs are expected to be above
normal, approaching 80 in some areas. The cold front will
approach northern Maine around 0z bringing a chance for some
showers to that area in the evening with precip chances
diminishing as the front moves farther south. Only light showers
are expected along the cold front due to minimal precipitable
water and instability. Probabilities for at least 0.1 inches
remains around 20% in the far north.
By Friday, cooler and drier air behind the front will be
working its way into the region in combination with some gusty
winds. Lowered dewpoints Friday due to the potential for strong
mixing which the NBM can underdo. The low RH in combination with
the gusty winds is likely to lead to some fire weather
concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building in behind the front will lead to dry
weather through the weekend. A cool and extremely dry air mass
will be in place with very little precipitable water, thus
lowered the dewpoints on both Saturday and Sunday a few degrees
from NBM guidance. The cooler airmass in combination with
strong radiational cooling should lead to temperatures in the
30s throughout the area Friday and Saturday night with temps
near freezing in the north. This may lead to a widespread frost
and possibly a killing freeze over the north.
On Monday, high pressure slides east and a weak warm front
approaches which may lead to a few showers. Models are still
expressing uncertainty over timing a strength but regardless a
widespread rain event is not likely.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Primarily VFR for the next 36 hours. Potential for
overnight fog once again at northern sites tonight. Based on
persistence, kept fog in for HUL, PQI and CAR. Fog potential
switches to southern sites on Wednesday night with southerly
return flow bringing the influence of the marine layer. Winds
will be light through the TAF period.
SHORT TERM: Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR all terminals. Cannot
rule out brief MVFR cigs for Aroostook terminals Thursday
evening and overnight. SW winds 5-10kts becoming NW 5-10kts
Thursday night with gusts 20-25kts Friday afternoon.
Friday night-Saturday night...VFR. NW winds 5-15kts.
Saturday night...VFR. WSW winds around 5 kts
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the near term.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA levels through Sunday.
Winds increase with cold front passage Friday night with outer
waters approaching 20kts gusts through early Saturday morning.
Seas will range from 1 to 3 feet into the weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...LF
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...LF/Melanson
Marine...LF/Melanson

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion