Chiricahua National Monument, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

299
FXUS65 KTWC 302051
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
151 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm to levels about 5 degrees above normal by
Thursday and Friday before cooling back down closer to near normal
levels this weekend. Breezy southwest winds are expected this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Sunny to mostly sunny skies across Southeast Arizona
this afternoon as we close the book on the 2025 Monsoon season
(June 15th 2025 - September 30th 2025). It has been a lackluster
season this year as Monsoon rainfall for the Tucson International
Airport (KTUS) this season was 2.82" (normal 5.69"), which ranks
as the 12th driest on record dating back to 1895. I would like to
say that it was just that the airport missed out on a lot of the
storms, but if you take a look at the Monsoon total lightning
strikes for the Tucson Metro Area since 1990, this year ranks as
the 4th lowest (3680 strikes) which is well below the average of
7940 strikes. Hmmph.
In any event, the upper pattern this afternoon is defined by a
broad trough across the West Coast. The upper trough will become
amplified the next few days as the center of the upper-low moves
from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest by 00Z Friday
then into the Great Basin by 00Z Saturday. As this occurs, we see
the subtropical ridge pump-up to the east of our neck of the woods
(SE NM/W TX) which in turn increases thicknesses across SE AZ.
Therefore, expect warming temperatures the next few days to around
5 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday.
The southern periphery of the upper low swings through the area
Friday into the weekend which will bring about breezy southwest
winds...especially Saturday afternoon. In fact, the 30/19Z NBM
probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 30 mph in Tucson is 33
percent Saturday, 12% Sunday and 9% Monday.
In an entirely way too early peek into the extended period
(outside the 7 day forecast period), we see members from both the
30/12Z GEFS and ECMWF trying to bring a tropical system up along
the Gulf of California Wednesday-Friday of next week (October
8-10th). I am a bit skeptical that it will have a major impact on
Southeast Arizona, primarily because the stronger trough in
southern California will most likely shove the deeper moisture NE
across eastern Sonora/western Chihuahua Mexico. However, the CPC
is starting to pick up on this solution with a likely above
normal probability for precipitation in Southeast Arizona on
their 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. Generally SKC thru the valid
period with SCT 8k-10k ft AGL east of Tucson both this afternoon
and Wednesday afternoon. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 6-13 kts with localized
gusts to 20 kts through 01/04Z. SFC winds then variable and
terrain driven less than 10 kts aft 01/04Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions prevail this week across Southeast
Arizona. Winds generally south to southwest through this week
with speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Minimum RHs
between 15-25 percent through the week as a drier airmass becomes
more established across Southeast Arizona. Temperatures warming
to above normal levels by the second half of the week. Breezy
southwest winds will be present starting Friday through next
Monday, with the strongest wind gusts 30-35 mph expected Saturday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion