Cibola, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

519
FXUS65 KPSR 301940
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1240 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry and quiet pattern will persist across the region through
  the end of the workweek and into the weekend.
- Temperatures will gradually warm up over the next few days as
  high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest.
- An area of low pressure will dive over the Great Basin late
  this/early this weekend, leading to breezy conditions and a
  decreases in temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Current 500mb analysis reveals the Desert Southwest caught between
two weather regimes, with broad troughing over the Pacific
Northwest and building high pressure over Northern Mexico. Based
on current global ensembles, the amplifying ridge will be the
eventual winner of the battle of which system gets to influence
our weather over the next few days, staving off a further
advancement, at least for the time being, of the Pacific Low. In
turn, conditions will remain dry and temperatures will remain
steady as we head into the middle of the week. Lower desert highs
this afternoon and Wednesday will be generally in the lower to
middle 90s which is right around normal for the end of
September/beginning of October.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble and deterministic models are still in agreement that an
upper-lvl ridge will amplify over the Desert Southwest while a
trough deepens over California and slides into the Great Basin
Thursday into Friday. As this occurs, 500 mb hghts will gradually
increase to around 588-590 dam over our forecast area, resulting
in afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s both Thursday and
Friday. These temperatures are around 3 to 5 degrees above
normal. There is also around a 60-70% chance that high
temperatures will reach 100 degrees in Phoenix both days.
Global models continue to indicate the aforementioned shortwave
trough transitioning to a cutoff low and swinging across the Great
Basin region Friday into Saturday. This will result in a noticeable
uptick in winds with breezy conditions materializing across much of
the region. The strongest winds (>30 mph) will likely reside
across the high country of northern AZ, but winds could still gust
around 20-25 mph across the lower deserts, especially on Friday
afternoon. Due to the trajectory of this system remaining well
north of our forecast area along with any lack of adequate
moisture return, dry conditions with near zero precipitation
chances are expected to persist. 500 mb hghts will lower back to
seasonal ranges by this weekend and into early next week, which
will foster temperatures cooling back to near normal Saturday
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit
the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 10 kts along with
periods of light and variable winds, especially during diurnal
transitions.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will be out of the west
throughout the entire period with speeds generally aob 10 kts,
although some enhanced sundowner winds with occasional gusts in
the 20-25 kt range will be possible for a period early this
evening. At KBLH, winds will generally fluctuate between the south
to southwest with speeds generally aob 12 kts, with occasional
gusts around 20 kts this afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will gradually warm above normal through the middle of
this week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the forecast area.
Expect much drier conditions to materialize each day with MinRHs
bottoming out around 25-35% through the end of this week. Overnight
moisture recovery will generally remain in the fair category. Winds
will follow light and diurnal tendencies over the next few days,
however an uptick in afternoon breeziness will be materializing
across the region on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Lojero FIRE
WEATHER...Salerno

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion