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Clear Creek, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KIND 240457
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1257 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder with daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday

- Dry yet warm Friday into next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1034 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

A complex of showers and storms is currently moving northeast through Western Indiana as of 10 PM this evening and will continue to overspread the rest of Central Indiana over the next several hours. The region is placed in an area of enhanced lift within the right entrance region of a jet streak to the north and and the exit region of an incoming jet streak to the southwest. A broad surface low under the positively tilted trough extends from Texas northeastward into southwest Indiana. The leading warm frontal boundary sets up along the Ohio River tonight as the surface low slowly progresses along it over the next 24 hours. This first batch of rain this evening is associated with a subtle wave along the leading edge of the front and under the region of enhanced lift aloft. About 500 j/kg of CAPE exist across the state, sufficient for thunderstorm development within this convective complex. ACARs soundings indicate weak mid level lapse rates, which should keep storms under severe levels tonight.

Showers and storms will continue northeast through Central Indiana into the overnight hours, with the best chance for thunderstorm activity before 3 AM. As instability wanes toward daybreak, thunderstorm activity should diminish, while rain showers persist. Satellite and radar images upstream in Missouri and Illinois show a broad area of low stratus and low topped showers behind this initial cluster of storms, which will move into Central Indiana after the first round of storms exits to the east/northeast. Heaviest rainfall amounts through the morning will mainly along and south of the I-74 corridor...upwards of 0.75 to 1"+ of rainfall with lesser amounts around 0.50" for North Central Indiana.

Smaller mesoscale processes and boundaries may lead to isolated areas picking up 1-3"+ of rainfall, especially if boundaries stall out with repeated rounds of thunderstorms over the same area. This situation occurred earlier this evening in Vermillion and Warren counties leading to isolated flash flooding. Not too concerned with this occurring overnight as instability wanes and showers become low topped... but will keep a close watch in case training cells begin forming along subtle boundaries.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Satellite shows gradual clearing across most of the region. Temperatures have rebounded quickly, with most showing mid to upper 70s as of 2pm. A few thunderstorms are forming just northwest of Lafayette, which are moving east southeast. We`ve bumped up PoPs a bit across our northwest to account for this. Current RAP soundings show modest instability with weak lapse rates. However, a long straight hodograph with about 25kt of shear is also shown. This may allow for some organization and a small hail threat this afternoon.

Tonight

Satellite shows a vort max and associated storm complex across Missouri, which is heading eastward. How this system evolves will have implications for how much rain we get and where it falls. Three scenarios exist, each discussed below:

Scenario 1: The system wraps up and intensifies, bringing a large swath of heavy rain and thunderstorms to central Indiana. This scenario is shown by the ECMWF and NAM, and depends on a more compact and consolidated vort max as well as some convective augmentation. Should this scenario occur, a more concentrated area of rainfall is likely...with embedded convection. Amounts could range from 1-3 inches or locally higher. This is the least likely scenario.

Scenario 2: The system remains weak and disorganized. This scenario is shown by the GEM and GFS. In this scenario, the vort max remains disjointed with the bulk of the energy sliding to our south. Only the southern half of our CWA sees rainfall with only light amounts.

Scenario 3: Something in between. The third possibility is a little of both, with modest low sliding east over our CWA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, with locally heavy amounts, but rainfall is more spotty in nature. The RAP is the solution most similar to this scenario. This is the most likely scenario.

Regardless, it is important to note the wide range of solutions and model disagreement for a system that is less than 24 hours out. Thankfully, we have recent observations to compare to since the system is beginning to take shape as of this writing. Surface observations and recent radar trends point us towards scenario 3. As such, we have likely to categorical PoPs across our CWA with the highest rainfall totals in our southern half. Trends will need to be monitored overnight as the system evolves...in case these need to be adjusted upward or downward.

Wednesday

Rain should linger into Wednesday before gradually tapering off during the afternoon. Lingering cloud cover should keep temperatures down compared to today, with highs in the low to mid 70s. The chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms remains during the afternoon, especially if the system is weaker and takes longer to depart.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Wednesday Night and Thursday...

Rain is expected to be continuing on Wednesday Night before tapering off on Thursday. The models suggest the deep upper low over MI and IN, along with an associated trough axis, stretching southwest to MO, passing across Indiana overnight, providing forcing. A favorable set-up remains in place within the lower levels as an associated surface low will be pushing across Indiana with cyclonic flow in place. Forecast soundings show ample moisture available amid these dynamics. Thus chances for rain will be high. Given the clouds and rain expected, will trend lows toward the lower 60s.

The upper low and associated trough axis is suggested to have exited northeast of Central Indiana by Thursday morning. Furthermore, the associated cold front should have exited Indiana, allowing a cooler less humid flow to arrive on northerly winds. A few lingering showers could remain within the waning cyclonic lower level flow in the morning, however the bigger picture here is the arrival of subsidence in the wake of the trough axis and stronger surface ridging building across Indiana through the course of the day from the upper midwest. Thus the trend here will be to include small chances for some light rain in the morning, followed by the arrival of dry weather in the afternoon.

Friday through Tuesday...

Strong ridging aloft along with subsidence is expected to remain across Indiana Friday through Sunday. This strong ridge is expected to produce a broad area of high pressure, stretching from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains this weekend. This will result in cool and dry northeasterly surface flow across Indiana. Forecast soundings appear on board for dry weather with a dry column with subsidence suggested. Plentiful sunshine should allow for more above normal temperatures this weekend.

As we approach Monday and Tuesday, some uncertainty remains as some models have trended drier compared to previous runs as the upper level low expected to develop over the southeastern states has trended to remain south of Indiana at that time. Another possibility shows a more retrograde and NW progression that could result in shower development in southern central Indiana. Confidence at this time is low overall. Furthermore, either way, Indiana will remain on the north side of this system with cool and dry northeast lower level flow in place. For now, we wont steer far from the NBM solution which will likely be drier.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Impacts:

- Deteriorating conditions to MVFR and potentially IFR overnight - VFR returns Wednesday afternoon - Scattered to numerous showers throughout the period. Isolated thunder, mainly southern sites

Discussion:

Scattered to numerous showers will accompany an area of low pressure that will move through south of the area. Plentiful low level moisture will allow MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop overnight. Confidence in getting as low as IFR is no higher than medium though at this time. MVFR visibility in fog/showers is also possible.

Winds will become north to northeast overnight and remain there for Wednesday. Drier air working in will allow VFR ceilings to return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

UPDATE...CM SHORT TERM...Eckhoff LONG TERM...Puma AVIATION...50

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion

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