Clint, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS64 KEPZ 111146
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
546 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly
   across western New Mexico. Storm chances spreading across the
   Rio Grande Valley Friday evening into Saturday.
- Above normal temperatures through Friday, cooling back to
   normal for mid-September this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
We start the forecast cycle with high pressure centered over the Big
Bend of W TX to our E, and a large and deep upper low over the Great
Basin to our W. The flow pattern, CCW around the base of the trough,
and CW around the back side of the high, is creating a narrow
channel of focused moisture on southerly flow into E AZ and W NM.
For today we has a more general smear of moderate moisture across
the entire CWA, which allowed scattered storms over the SACs, and
isolated storms elsewhere across all zones. For tomorrow, it appears
the high pressure to our E will shove the better moisture west, and
thus keep chances for Thursday showers and storms over our far
western zones (Bootheel and Gila). It will be another warm day, with
afternoon temps at least 5 degrees above normal. Skies will start
mostly clear, with much of the region seeing fair weather cu
development, while our western zones see full development to showers.
Friday looks to be a near repeat of what we expect tomorrow, as the
pattern changes little, with the exception of the rain/storm chances
expanding a bit east toward a Deming to TorC line. This is because
beginning Friday, we see the ridge to our east retreat a bit more
east, as the trough to our west begins to nudge eastward.
For Saturday, the trough picks up some steam, and begins to march
east toward the Rockies. This will sweep the moisture channel with
it, and recenter the deeper moisture directly over our region. Thus
we expect to see more clouds, a small decrease in temperatures, and
better chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms across
all forecast zones.
Sunday looks like a "betweener" day, as the moisture gets
temporarily flushed out to our east, on moderate west flow aloft, as
the first wave of energy passes across the Rockies, and moves out
into the Plains. Both the GFS and the ECMWF models indicate a deep
sweep out of moisture, and a dry day. The LREF ensembles lean that
way, with the GFS leading the dry solution.
Monday onward is in question because models go in very different
directions, which give us little confidence in the forecast. The
GFS, although backing off on a VERY wet solution, still tries to
reestablish a moisture plume over the region, for another round of
showers/storms on Monday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, builds a dry
high over the region, with virtually no chance of any precipitation.
However, even some of the members of the ECMWF ensemble still have
pcpn for this period, and beyond, so they are super set on dry. For
now we will hedge a bit since it is day 5 in the forecast, and sure
to get clearer in the next few model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VMC through forecast period with scattered TSRA across W NM this
afternoon. Dry weather expected for local TAF sites. Surface winds
140-170 at 08-12 knots this afternoon with skies FEW-SCT110 from
developing afternoon cumulus.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Low fire danger with ERCs near normal and antecedent moisture
preventing large fire spread. Scattered thunderstorms along the
AZ/NM state line today, likely missing most of GNF and LNF. Min
RH 20-30%. Very Good vent rates with 20 winds 10 to 15 mph and
transport to the north today.
Better rain chances expected Friday afternoon and evening as the
moisture plume currently to our west, shifts eastward across New
Mexico. Storms could produce localized flooding. Drier weather
again Sunday/Monday then typical isolated showers and
thunderstorms the rest of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  72  95  71 /   0   0  10  30
Sierra Blanca            90  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               92  65  90  65 /   0   0  10  50
Alamogordo               93  65  91  65 /   0   0  10  40
Cloudcroft               71  48  68  48 /   0   0  10  30
Truth or Consequences    91  65  87  64 /   0  10  30  70
Silver City              86  60  82  57 /  10  20  60  70
Deming                   95  65  92  64 /  10  10  30  60
Lordsburg                92  65  88  63 /  20  20  60  50
West El Paso Metro       94  71  92  70 /   0   0  10  30
Dell City                93  63  91  66 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             95  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               87  63  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
Fabens                   94  68  93  69 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Teresa             92  68  91  67 /   0   0  10  40
White Sands HQ           93  67  91  67 /   0   0  10  40
Jornada Range            92  65  90  65 /   0   0  20  50
Hatch                    95  65  93  65 /   0  10  20  60
Columbus                 95  66  92  67 /   0  10  30  50
Orogrande                91  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  30
Mayhill                  81  52  79  53 /   0   0  10  20
Mescalero                82  52  80  53 /   0   0  10  40
Timberon                 79  51  77  52 /   0   0  10  30
Winston                  84  54  80  51 /  10  10  40  70
Hillsboro                91  61  88  59 /  10  10  40  70
Spaceport                91  63  88  63 /   0  10  20  60
Lake Roberts             86  55  82  53 /  10  10  60  70
Hurley                   89  60  85  59 /  10  20  50  60
Cliff                    92  63  89  60 /  20  20  60  60
Mule Creek               88  59  85  56 /  20  20  50  50
Faywood                  88  62  85  59 /  10  10  50  60
Animas                   92  65  88  63 /  20  20  60  50
Hachita                  92  63  88  62 /  10  10  50  50
Antelope Wells           91  64  87  62 /  10  10  50  50
Cloverdale               86  62  82  60 /  20  20  60  50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion